Author Topic: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]  (Read 22094 times)

Offline Jonesracing82

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #210 on: June 19, 2022, 01:02:29 AM »
Top 8 play each other next week so beating the Cats is a must if we want to be top 4, just gotta tell them it's Finals week & we should be right ;)

Offline one-eyed

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #211 on: June 20, 2022, 05:59:31 AM »
The Run Home: Where every AFL club will finish on the ladder, and who’ll play finals

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 20th, 2022


6. RICHMOND (8-5, 117.8%)

Remaining games

Round 15: Geelong Cats at the MCG

Round 16: West Coast Eagles at the MCG

Round 17: Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium

Round 18: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 23: Essendon at the MCG

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 79%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest

Here come the Tigers, with six wins from their last seven games, and every chance they’ll make that nine from 11 at the very least.

With six games left against bottom 10 sides, it’d be a surprise if Damien Hardwick’s men didn’t reach that 13-win mark that looks like the minimum to play finals in 2022.

Really, they could be dreaming of a top-four berth, as they get Geelong, Fremantle and Brisbane all in Melbourne making those games quite a bit easier.

A 15-win season is within reach, if the Tigers continue to play at their recent level. And in particular if they beat Geelong, that’s likely to be enough for the double chance.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.35 projected wins, finishing 7th



PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Brisbane Lions (15.45 projected wins)

2. Melbourne (15.05)

3. Fremantle (15)

4. Geelong Cats (14.7)

5. Carlton (13.6)

6. Sydney Swans (13.5)

7. Richmond (13.35)

8. Collingwood (12.7)
---------------------------
9. St Kilda (12.65)

10. Western Bulldogs (11.9)

11. Gold Coast Suns (11.85)

12. Port Adelaide (10.55)

13. Hawthorn (8.3)

14. Adelaide Crows (8 )

15. GWS Giants (7.8 )

16. Essendon (6.85)

17. North Melbourne (3.4)

18. West Coast Eagles (3.25)


PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats at the Gabba

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Carlton vs Collingwood at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs Richmond at the SCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Fremantle at the MCG

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-the-run-home-after-round-14-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/da52e00eaee61d1bff6d3ccab331ec94
« Last Edit: June 20, 2022, 06:27:07 AM by one-eyed »

Offline the claw

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #212 on: June 20, 2022, 10:49:01 AM »
The Run Home: Where every AFL club will finish on the ladder, and who’ll play finals

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 20th, 2022


6. RICHMOND (8-5, 117.8%)

Remaining games

Round 15: Geelong Cats at the MCG      Tough game probably a loss they have won the last two fairly easy.

Round 16: West Coast Eagles at the MCG. Should be a win they are getting players back so it may not be a huge thrashing.

Round 17: Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium This is a danger game especially at metricon.

Round 18: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium a win but marvel stadium has beeen a problem for us

Round 19: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium. Tough game in melbourne but worry is marvrl stadium again.

Round 20: Brisbane Lions at the MCG tough game again and no guarantees here.

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval. We got over the line at the G this time around its in Adlelaide  no guarantee.

Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG should win

Round 23: Essendon at the MCG Should win

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 79%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest

Here come the Tigers, with six wins from their last seven games, and every chance they’ll make that nine from 11 at the very least.

With six games left against bottom 10 sides, it’d be a surprise if Damien Hardwick’s men didn’t reach that 13-win mark that looks like the minimum to play finals in 2022.

Really, they could be dreaming of a top-four berth, as they get Geelong, Fremantle and Brisbane all in Melbourne making those games quite a bit easier.

A 15-win season is within reach, if the Tigers continue to play at their recent level. And in particular if they beat Geelong, that’s likely to be enough for the double chance.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.35 projected wins, finishing 7th



PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Brisbane Lions (15.45 projected wins)

2. Melbourne (15.05)

3. Fremantle (15)

4. Geelong Cats (14.7)

5. Carlton (13.6)

6. Sydney Swans (13.5)

7. Richmond (13.35)

8. Collingwood (12.7)
---------------------------
9. St Kilda (12.65)

10. Western Bulldogs (11.9)

11. Gold Coast Suns (11.85)

12. Port Adelaide (10.55)

13. Hawthorn (8.3)

14. Adelaide Crows (8 )

15. GWS Giants (7.8 )

16. Essendon (6.85)

17. North Melbourne (3.4)

18. West Coast Eagles (3.25)


PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats at the Gabba

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Carlton vs Collingwood at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs Richmond at the SCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Fremantle at the MCG

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-the-run-home-after-round-14-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/da52e00eaee61d1bff6d3ccab331ec94

Think the bottom line for all teams is how healthy they can stay . Still think in this we are the most vulnerable as the gap between experience and games into juniors and development players  is probably the largest in the comp.

Online lamington

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #213 on: June 20, 2022, 11:19:27 AM »
No pressure on meatballs but basically if he gets injured our season is over. If we can keep his body in check and make the 8 all teams will poo themselves playing us

Offline one-eyed

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #214 on: June 21, 2022, 12:47:52 AM »
The finals audit: How the AFL contenders stack up, and the key stat that’ll decide their fates

Catherine Healey
Foxsports
20 June 2022 8pm


6. RICHMOND

In the last seven games, the Tigers are ranked #1 in the competition in points from turnover, points differential from turnovers, forward half turnovers created and points from forward half turnovers

The experts say:

Nick Riewoldt says Richmond’s stats are the “blueprint” that underpinned their successful run of three premierships.

“It can’t be happening again can it?” he said.

“They probably lost a bit of hunger last year … (but) a player like Balta comes in who is a freakish talent.

“Nick Vlastuin, Dylan Grimes, Dion Prestia – if they can stay fit and healthy, I think they’ll be there again the Tiges.”

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/the-finals-audit-how-the-afl-contenders-stack-up-and-the-key-stat-thatll-decide-their-fates/news-story/9f5e4944bb69462574533d033f5aacd6

Offline one-eyed

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #215 on: June 21, 2022, 12:19:05 PM »
Power Rankings after Round 14

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 21st, 2022


1. Fremantle
2. Melbourne
3. Brisbane
4. Geelong

5. RICHMOND (8-5, 117.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 9

The Tigers’ horrific inefficiency in their victory over Carlton is one of those glass half-full or half-empty situations. Half-full? You’ll pretty much win every week if you’re recording 76 inside 50s. Half-empty? How the heck do you not kick more than 11 goals from 76 inside 50s, against a Blues defence that seems to cop a new injury every five minutes? Conditions played a part but if they can just get a bit more cohesive, suddenly these Tigers look like a genuine top-four threat. Their midfield is just so much stronger with Dion Prestia in it, and their chaos game-style is back and powerful. A win over the Cats this weekend - live and exclusive on Fox Footy and Kayo! - combined with a pretty easy draw after that game would mean the double-chance is well and truly gettable.

6. Sydney
7. W.Bulldogs
8. Carlton
9. Collingwood
10. St Kilda
11. Gold Coast
12. Port Adelaide

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/big-changes-in-pecking-order-as-tigers-rise-saints-slump-before-race-to-13-power-rankings/news-story/dc92e4c94300b5b906319393ae1c7790

Offline one-eyed

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #216 on: June 21, 2022, 03:04:41 PM »
Tigers show glimpses of 2020 form

Matthew Lloyd and Damian Barrett discuss Richmond's game style and premiership chances on Access All Areas:

https://www.afl.com.au/video/784136/tigers-show-glimpses-of-2020-form

Offline one-eyed

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Dynasty not over yet: The signs 'Tiger Time' is upon us again (afl site)
« Reply #217 on: June 22, 2022, 11:32:17 AM »
Dynasty not over yet: The signs 'Tiger Time' is upon us again

All the key Richmond indicators suggest the Tigers are primed for another premiership tilt

By Riley Beveridge
afl.com.au
22 June 2022


FOR SO long, Manchester United sent teams through the ringer in 'Fergie Time'. For over a decade, Lewis Hamilton has put the foot down in 'Hammer Time'. And now, with the AFL season reaching its most crucial point, the League is about to enter 'Tiger Time'.

Richmond is, once again, hitting its post-bye peak. In all three of the club's recent premiership campaigns – 2017, 2019 and 2020 – the Tigers began hitting their straps after a mid-year week off. This season may be no different.

Damien Hardwick's side went 11-3 after the bye in 2017, winning nine of its last 10 games on its way to a drought-breaking flag. It then went 12-0 after the bye in 2019 to emerge as the most dominant side in the competition. In 2020, the Tigers went 5-1 after the bye but enjoyed nine wins from their last 10 games.

This season, Richmond has only gone 2-0 since the bye. However, for a larger sample size, it has six wins in its past seven games and is undoubtedly one of the form teams in the competition. The profile of its performance also suggests there is more to come.

In every key Richmond-centric metric accumulated by Champion Data, the Tigers are replicating their '17, '19 and '20 best. It's the clearest indication yet that the 'Dimma Dynasty' might not be over.

In three important categories central to Hardwick and Richmond's recent premiership success – territory, scoring and defence – the Tigers have dominated the competition over the past two months.

In each of 2017, 2019 and 2020, Richmond ranked top four in the League for territory indicators including inside-50 differential, time in forward-half differential and the underrated stat of handball metres gained. From round seven onwards, the Tigers rank No.2 for inside-50 differential (+14.1), No.1 for time in forward-half differential (+11.57 minutes) and No.1 for handball metres gained (390.8m).

TERRITORY                   2017        2019         2020         Rd 7-14, 2022

Inside-50 diff.                  #4            #3            #2                #2

Time in fwd-half diff.        #3            #4            #1                #1

Handball metres gained    #1            #1            #1                #1

In each of its three premiership seasons, Richmond has also ranked top five in the AFL for scoring indicators including scores from turnover differential, forward-half possession gains and scores from forward-half possession gains. In their past eight matches, the Tigers rank No.1 in all three categories.

They also rank No.1 for points scored in that same time period (104.7 points per game) and No.5 for scores per inside-50 entry (44.4 per cent), significantly improved numbers even when compared with their trio of premiership seasons.

SCORING                                           2017           2019           2020         Rd 7-14, 2022

Scores from turnover diff.                     #5              #2              #1                  #1

Fwd-half possession gain                      #2              #3              #2                  #1

Scores from fwd-half possession gain    #5              #2               #5                  #1

Then there's crucial defensive indicators including intercept marks and scores against per inside-50 entry, in which Richmond ranked top three in the League in two of three premiership seasons. This year, in its past eight games, it ranks No.2 for intercept marks (18.4) and No.6 for scores against per inside-50 entry (40.6 per cent).

DEFENCE                                     2017         2019           2020          Rd 7-14, 2022

Intercept marks                            #3            #7              #2                   #2

Scores against per inside-50 %      #1            #2              #6                   #6

But there are also areas of Richmond's game, which weren't necessarily a strength of the Tigers throughout their recent premiership campaigns, that have drastically improved during the current season and in the past eight weeks in particular.

Not a proven ball-winning team – particularly in 2019 when the side ranked bottom four in the League for disposal differential, contested possession differential and clearance differential – Richmond has grown considerably in those areas throughout this year.

Led by Dion Prestia, since round seven the Tigers have ranked No.5 in the AFL for disposal differential (+14.4), No.6 for contested possession differential (+5.9), No.6 for uncontested possession differential (+7.9) and No.5 for clearance differential (+3.0). Never has that been more important than in their last game, when they overwhelmed the Blues' star-studded midfield on their way to another victory.

If you combine the ever-improving statistical comparisons to the continually shrinking injury list – Richmond's injury report featured just one player last week, an unwell Dustin Martin – then every signpost is pointing in the right direction at Punt Road.

And, once Martin returns – which could happen as soon as this week's crucial encounter with Geelong – focus will then shift to ensuring the triple Norm Smith Medal winner can build his loads in time for another September burst.

That, in itself, is yet another daunting prospect with 'Tiger Time' only just beginning.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/784388/dynasty-not-over-yet-the-signs-tiger-time-is-upon-us-again

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #219 on: June 23, 2022, 02:27:02 PM »
Gerard Whateley’s top 5 most intriguing teams

3. Richmond

“I’ve gone the other way on the Saturday game, I’ve gone Richmond.

“Are they slugging away in the bottom part of the eight, or are they making a run at adding to the dynasty?”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/06/23/pearce-and-whateleys-top-5-most-intriguing-teams-for-round-15/

Offline one-eyed

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #220 on: June 23, 2022, 05:41:23 PM »
AFL ladder predictor

Here’s how the ladder will look at the end of the year and the key contests that will shape it👇

Mitch Keating
zerohanger.com
June 23, 2022 - 3:50PM

 
At the conclusion of the three bye rounds we can now set our focus on the remaining nine weeks of the 2022 AFL home and away season.

81 matches will take place across the coming months and will decide who makes the cut for September and who will head back to the drawing board in the first month of Spring.

As things currently stand, Brisbane have their necks narrowly out in front of the finals pack, separating themselves by a matter of percentage over fellow premiership contenders Melbourne and Fremantle.

And while spots at the top of the ladder may also be in high demand - with Geelong, Sydney and Carlton circling - there is a logjam for clubs on the periphery of the finals frame that are looking to squeeze themselves into the calculations.

Ahead of Round 15, in what shapes to be a weekend that may decide the seasons for several clubs, we predict how the remaining round mat play out, predicting each club's final record and spot on the ladder some the cessation of Round 23.

1. Brisbane         18-4     129.0%
2. Melbourne       17-5    127.2%
3. Geelong          17-5    126.7%
4. Fremantle       17-5    122.1%
5. Sydney           16-6    117.3%
6. Carlton           15-7    112.4%
7. Richmond       14-8    116.1%
8. Collingwood    14-8    108.8%
--------------------------------------
9. St Kilda          12-10   108.2%
10. Gold Coast    12-10   107.8%
11. W.Bulldogs    10-12   107.2%
12. Port Adelaide  9-13     98.4%

7. Richmond
Current Record: 8-5
Run Home: GEEL, WCE, GCS, NM, FRE, BRIS, PORT, HAW, ESS
Predicted Final Record: 14-8
Estimated Percentage: 116.1

With the Blues placed one spot above Richmond at sixth in our predictor, the two Victorian behemoths will clash heads in what would be a mouth-watering elimination final within this hypothetical.

To get there, the Tigers will pull in six wins and three losses, with matchups against the Cats, Dockers and Lions set as the biggest hills Damien Hardwick will need to climb.

Favoured to claim wins against the Power, Hawks and Bombers in the final three rounds may see the Tigers pounce up a spot or two on our ladder across the last few weeks of the season, booking themselves a place against Carlton at the MCG in September.

A win there would see them face the loser of Geelong and Melbourne, another contest at their heartland home ground.

https://www.zerohanger.com/one-club-falls-from-the-top-eight-as-hawks-secure-bottom-half-sweet-spot-afl-ladder-predictor-122240/

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‘Genuine chance’: Why the Tigers are in the premiership mix (Age)
« Reply #221 on: June 25, 2022, 03:47:40 PM »
‘Genuine chance’: Why the Tigers are in the premiership mix

Jon Pierik
The Age
June 25, 2022


While Michael Voss was left to rue that his Blues had been “out-toughed”, for Tigers past and present, there may have been no better compliment after they had dug deep on a chilly Thursday night at the MCG.

“When it comes down to it, they brought a better hunt, a better appetite to the contest and we weren’t able to absorb that for long enough. So, if you are not winning contests and you are losing territory, it’s a hard day,” Voss said after the Blues were beaten by 15 points last week.

Toughness, appetite, hunt … now that’s something the Tigers of yesteryear under coach Tommy Hafey and powerbroker Graeme Richmond were renowned for, and traits the grand era under Damien Hardwick has also encapsulated.

The Tigers have been building in recent weeks, this coming not long after The Saturday Age in April posed the question: Dynasty debate: Can the Tigers roar back?

After the Tigers slipped to a 1-2 start, Brisbane great Jonathan Brown, recalling the end-of-the-era Lions of 2005, also posed the question: “Can you scrap and fight and hang in there when you know your best is past you?”

It was a fair question at the time, but it’s now dated. Six wins from their past seven matches — this would have been a clean sheet had they not squandered a five-goal lead to the Swans — has the Tigers arguably the form team of the competition heading into Saturday’s twilight blockbuster against fellow heavyweight Geelong at the MCG.

The Cats, too, have been in good touch, a lethargic victory over West Coast last weekend coming amid a heavy training program ahead of tapering for the run home.

They, however, were a favoured pre-season bet to again finish in the top four. The Tigers, premiers in 2017, 2019 and 2020, missed the finals last year, with debate over whether their dynasty was over. But the manner in which they scalped the reborn Blues confirmed they are again the real deal.

Richmond had 94 intercept possessions, the eighth most in club history, and had season highs in forward-half intercepts (44), inside 50s (76) and time in forward half (plus-17.03 minutes).

Then there’s the “game of inches” Hardwick craves, praising his men for the “Richmond-man behaviours” they have shown in tackling and reclaiming loose balls.

Tigers’ senior football advisor Neil Balme said the Tigers were in a good place.

“I think we have played reasonably well throughout the whole year without necessarily getting the results. To play Geelong is a really big game for us. If we can get up in that one, we are a genuine chance [of winning the flag], I think,” Balme said.

That bid has only strengthened with Dustin Martin returning from illness. It’s been a mixed year for the three-time Norm Smith medallist, having also missed six weeks after round one through personal leave, and he hasn’t enjoyed his best form. But if he can enjoy a strong run from here, the Tigers have the game-breaker they need.

There are, however, questions. Maurice Rioli jnr was used as the substitute against the Blues and provided immediate impact when injected into the game in the final term after Noah Balta was hurt. Does he deserve to be permanently in the starting 22? And what about Shane Edwards? He appeared tired against the Blues. Has time caught up with one of the team’s key heartbeats?

Former Kangaroo Robbie Tarrant, dealing with a surgically repaired hand, appears settled in defence, but the Tigers continue to debate whether they need a specialist ruck to back up co-captain Toby Nankervis, particularly if they feel the Demons, come September, could work him over with Max Gawn and Luke Jackson.

“I think you probably do, that’s what we are aiming for, but we go week by week,” Balme said.

That the Tigers had 76 inside-50 entries against the Blues but only 11 goals continued a theme that has frustrated Hardwick. On one hand, creating those opportunities reinforced how strong their robust work was upfield. On the other, there needs to be greater symmetry inside attacking 50.

“They do like to go long, but it can be hard not to when you have [Tom] Lynch and [Jack] Riewoldt there,” one rival football-department figure said.

Lynch has 34 goals while Riewoldt, showing all the signs of playing on next year, has 24. Add electrifying high half-forward Shai Bolton (23 goals for the season; nine score involvements against the Blues) into the mix, and it’s no wonder the Tigers are keen to go long as they have aerial and ground weapons.

Opponents also point out the game of chess they face at stoppages when the Tigers push extra numbers up to the ball, including Bolton and the athletic Lynch, who can then beat their man on the dash back to attacking 50 should the Tigers win possession.

Rivals can choose to hold numbers back, but that gives the Tigers the advantage up the field.

At the other end of the ground, rebounding half-back Nick Vlastuin (10 intercept marks against the Blues) is pivotal, generating the run that Cats’ veteran Zach Tuohy says his team must be careful to not be lulled into consistently copying. Then there’s Tigers’ co-captain and key defender Dylan Grimes, who has arguably the most important job on Saturday in attempting to curb Jeremy Cameron. The former Giant averages four goals in Cats’ wins, but only one in defeats.

Hardwick, forever digging into detail, said Richmond know the blueprint they need to adopt.

“We are doing a lot of things right, but our scoring profile is probably not where we need it to be. We are getting a lot more inside 50s than our opposition, in fairness that’s been a staple of when we have had success,” he said.

“So, we know what the game looks like if we want it to look like a certain way, but we just have to get better at generating more shots on goal.”

The Tigers will miss Balta and former skipper Trent Cotchin (broken collarbone) but it’s their system that while relatively simple to explain is still, as Tuohy says, so hard to stop.

Defeat in this latest “feline frenzy” should not mean their charge ends. West Coast, Gold Coast and North Melbourne await over the ensuing three weeks, so at least two wins through this period should almost be guaranteed.

The Tigers were confident over summer there was another run in their premiership core. There’s little to suggest, certainly right now, they weren’t on the money.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/genuine-chance-why-the-tigers-are-in-the-premiership-mix-20220621-p5avaj.html

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #222 on: June 25, 2022, 04:30:30 PM »
With the ladder so tight it feels today game's is an early final. A season defining game almost even though there's still two months to go before finals. Win and the top 4 opens up for us and the media will be pumping us up for the flag; lose and we'll most likely be sitting out of the Eight and we'll be dismissed as a flag chance.
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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #223 on: June 25, 2022, 11:16:51 PM »
One more goal against both the Swans and Cats and we'd be sitting top 4 tonight. Could've, would've, should've  :-\.

Will need a repeat of 2019 going undefeated from here to do it. Can only see us finishing top 4 now but winning all of our 8 remaining H/A games.
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Offline TigerLand

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #224 on: June 25, 2022, 11:19:18 PM »
I'm not deterred on our chances if top 4 isn't possible. We should win our remaining games anyway. We'd be fav going into every one of them.

I'm happy winning a flag from 5th or 6th.
Go Tigers!