Can Richmond challenge again in 2023?

[one-eyed]

The Bombers, Bulldogs, Saints and Power have just two games each left against teams in the eight.

In the chasing pack, Richmond (four), Greater Western Sydney (three), Carlton (three) and Adelaide (three) have tougher runs home, while Sydney (two) and Gold Coast (one) have an advantage.

Record v current top eight

Port Adelaide   8-1 (110.50%)
Collingwood     5-2 (115.34)
Geelong          4-2 (115.71)
Brisbane         4-3 (107.98)
Melbourne      4-4 (102.95)
Adelaide         3-5 (101.19)
Fremantle       3-5 (83.59)
Gold Coast      3-6 (77.24)
St Kilda          2-4 (101.62)
Richmond       2-6 (87.46)
Carlton           2-6 (86.24)
GWS Giants    2-5 (80.91)
Hawthorn       2-5 (67.47)
Sydney          1-1-6 (71.71)
Essendon       1-7 (79.22)
W.Bulldogs     1-6 (74.80)
North Melb.    0-8 (58.17)
West Coast     0-7 (55.33)

                                                                Games left v        Games left
                                                                current top eight       v rest
Geelong                                                                5                       1

Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn                          4                        2
Brisbane, Greater Western Sydney, Carlton,

Adelaide, Fremantle, North Melbourne                     3                        3
Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs,

Essendon, Sydney, West Coast                                2                        4

Gold Coast                                                            1                        5

Melbourne                                                             0                        6

https://www.afl.com.au/news/982146/tightest-finals-race-in-decades-as-huge-tests-loom-for-cats

[one-eyed]

AFL Form Ladder: Which teams are hot right now and which teams’ form has slipped

With finals on the horizon and a logjam for top eight spots, teams need to be hitting top form now. But the numbers aren’t good for some hopefuls.

Riley Alexander
HeraldSun
July 20, 2023

The Tigers, meanwhile, have been flawless barring an 81-point drubbing by Brisbane in the last month, with Andrew McQualter’s time in the hot seat seeing him net five wins from seven attempts.

Both the Giants and Tigers have won four games against bottom-10 sides throughout this period, bouncing back from trickier starts to the year and establishing themselves as genuine contenders for the remaining spots up for grabs.

FORM LADDER - PAST SIX GAMES
 
Club                    M     W    L    D       %       QW    T8 W-L    B10 W-L

Collingwood         6      5     1    0    150.6     16        1-1         4-0
GWS Giants         6      5     1    0    130.6     15        1-0         4-1
Port Adelaide       6      5     1    0    119.5     13        3-0         2-1
Richmond            6      5     1    0    102.1     13        1-1         4-0
Geelong              6      4     1    1    133.7     14        3-1        1-1-0
Carlton               6      4     2    0    145.4     14        1-2          3-0
Brisbane             6      4     2    0    142.1     16        1-1          3-1
Melbourne           6      4     2    0    106.6     14        3-1         1-1
Gold Coast          6      3     3    0      90.0     13        1-2         2-1
Essendon            6      3     3    0      89.8     11        0-2         3-1
Sydney               6      2     3    1    130.3     12      1-1-2        1-1
Adelaide             6      2     4    0    125.6     13        0-2         2-2
Western Bulldogs 6     2     4    0      98.5     13        0-3         2-1
St Kilda              6      2     4    0      84.6      8         0-2         2-2
Hawthorn           6      2     4    0      78.3     10        1-1         1-3
Fremantle           6      1     5    0      68.0      7        1-2         0-3
North Melbourne 6      0     6    0      65.2      5         0-3         0-3
West Coast         6      0     6    0      39.5      2         0-3         0-3

Legend - M: Matches, W: Wins, L: Losses, D: Draws, QW: Quarters won, T8 W-L: Win/loss record against top 8 teams, B10 W-L: Win/loss record against bottom 10 teams

[one-eyed]

Kane Cornes’ final top eight.

1 – Collingwood
2 – Port Adelaide
3 – Brisbane
4 – Melbourne
5 – Western Bulldogs
6 – Geelong
7 – Carlton
8 – Essendon

David King has the same.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/07/21/kane-cornes-makes-his-final-top-eight-prediction/

[Knighter]

Essendon choke going to cost us finals

[mightytiges]

I had us needing to win five of the six games we've just played (Freo, StK, Bris, Syd, WCE, Haw). Which we've now done [by the skin of our teeth].

We'll now need to win at least three of our final five and that's if all the other games go as favoured. So that's Saints, Norf and one of the matches where we'll be underdogs - Melb, Dogs@Marvel or Port (away). Otherwise, we'll miss the top 8 by half a game .

                Current          R19        R20       R21       R22       R23       R24      Final
                   Pts                                                                                          Pts
Bulldogs       40                -          GWS      Rich    Haw (A)   WCE    Geel (A)    56   
   
Geelong       38            Bris (A)    Freo       Port     Coll (G)  StK (A)   Dogs       54
                   
Carlton         38               -          Coll         StK       Melb     GC (A)   GWS       50

Essendon      36               -          Syd       WCE        Norf    GWS (A)    Coll      48
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GWS             36              GC      Dogs (A)  Syd     Port (A)    Ess      Carl (A)    48

Richmond     38               -          Melb   Dogs (A)   StK (A)   Norf     Port (A)    46

Adelaide        32          Melb (A)   Port         GC      Bris (A)   Syd     WCE (A)    44

St Kilda         36            Norf        Haw       Carl       Rich      Geel     Bris (A)    44

Sydney          30           Freo (A)  Ess (A)   GWS       GC     Adel (A)    Melb      38

Gold Coast     32          GWS (A)     Bris   Adel (A)  Syd (A)    Carl    Norf (A)    36

[one-eyed]

"I'd love to be a Tigers supporter because they don't feel they need to go down to be in [and contend again]."

- Matthew Lloyd on why he loves the Tigers' approach.

WATCH HERE: https://twitter.com/FootyonNine/status/1682912803248635904

[Andyy]

We 100% cannot challenge and would be belted silly by the top 4 IMO, but honestly we have done very well without our most important player in Lynch. Such a shame about his foot.

[one-eyed]

The Run Home after Round 19:

Max Laughton
Foxsports
24 July 2023

10. RICHMOND (9-8-1, 99.9%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Remaining fixture difficulty: Eighth-easiest

We were sitting at the MCG writing this Richmond capsule in our heads - their season is over, they threw it away, etc etc - before a frantic comeback which keeps them well and truly in the mix. They’re still going to need a little bit of help, because their percentage is going to hurt them against the Cats and Blues. All they can do is keep winning, and if they win three of their last five - most likely one of the next two, and then against the Saints and Kangaroos - they’ve got a very good shot of playing finals. It’ll just come down to which other teams are able to win three of five as well; they probably need to finish ahead of two of the Giants, Saints and Blues. They can hand the Saints a loss themselves, and then the Blues play the Saints and Giants, so that’s a couple of guaranteed losses amongst that group.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.1 wins, finishing 8th

---------------------------------------

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Collingwood (19.1 projected wins)
2. Port Adelaide (16.9)
3. Brisbane Lions (16.1)
4. Melbourne (15.25)
5. Western Bulldogs (13.15)
6. Geelong (12.45)
7. GWS Giants (12.2)
8. Richmond (12.1)
-------------------------------
9. Carlton (12)
10. Essendon (11.95)
11. St Kilda (11.8 )
12. Sydney Swans (10.9)
13. Adelaide Crows (10.85)
14. Gold Coast Suns (10.4)
15. Fremantle (9.65)
16. Hawthorn (6.8 )
17. North Melbourne (3.8 )
18. West Coast Eagles (1.55)


PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Collingwood vs Melbourne at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Western Bulldogs vs Richmond at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Geelong vs GWS Giants at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-19-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/c24b502926fb69034caba3e423f8afb5

[one-eyed]

The Run Home

Sarah Black
afl.com.au
24 July 2023

10. Richmond
38 points (nine wins, eight losses, one draw), 99.9 per cent

The Tigers kept their top-eight hopes alive with another close win, this time over Hawthorn after their final-minute victory over Sydney two weeks ago. They finish the round just outside the eight on percentage but a much sterner test awaits next week against Melbourne. The Tigers will have to beat at least one of the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda (and the Marvel Stadium hoodoo) to help fight their way through the log-jam ranging from fifth to 12th.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/982240/the-run-home-bombers-slide-giants-surge-lions-close-the-gap

[Francois Jackson]

The Run Home

Sarah Black
afl.com.au
24 July 2023

10. Richmond
38 points (nine wins, eight losses, one draw), 99.9 per cent

The Tigers kept their top-eight hopes alive with another close win, this time over Hawthorn after their final-minute victory over Sydney two weeks ago. They finish the round just outside the eight on percentage but a much sterner test awaits next week against Melbourne. The Tigers will have to beat at least one of the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda (and the Marvel Stadium hoodoo) to help fight their way through the log-jam ranging from fifth to 12th.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/982240/the-run-home-bombers-slide-giants-surge-lions-close-the-gap

yeah right

where are the rest of the wins going to come from not including north and one of saints/dogs?

Thats 2 wins and 11.5 wins all up

we need 4 wins from the remaining 5 because cats and blues have superior percentage

[Damo]

Have a feeling we needed Port to beat the pies Saturday night

We really need Port to be in full rest mode the last game of the year

[one-eyed]

Run home: The final five games for every club, final AFL ladder prediction

Josh Barnes
HeraldSun
July 24, 2023

10. RICHMOND
Won: 9, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 38, Percentage: 99.9

Richmond's Run Home
R20: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R22: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

Predicted finish: 10th (11-11-1)

Liam Baker’s left-foot bender put Richmond past Hawthorn and into the eight for 24 hours over the weekend. At three-quarter time, Richmond’s finals chances were almost kaput but the stirring comeback gives Andrew McQualter’s men a serious sniff. A poor percentage means the Tigers must win more than the Blues to get past them, so will likely need to win four of the last five, which is a tough task.

Final Predicted Ladder

1. Collingwood (21-2)
2. Port Adelaide (18-5)
3. Brisbane Lions (17-6)*
4. Melbourne (17-6)*
5. Geelong (13-9-1)
6. Western Bulldogs (13-10)*
7. GWS Giants (13-10)*
8. Carlton (12-10-1)
---------------------------------
9. Essendon (12-11)
10. Richmond (11-11-1)
11. Adelaide (11-12)*
12. St Kilda (11-12)*
13. Sydney (9-13-1)
14. Gold Coast (9-14)
15. Fremantle (8-15)
16. Hawthorn (6-17)
17. North Melbourne (3-20)
18. West Coast (1-22)

*Percentage could change final position

https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/run-home-the-final-five-games-for-every-club-final-afl-ladder-prediction/news-story/55efd27ab8b96c8003d71d273681a170

[one-eyed]

AFL Power Rankings after Round 19

Max Laughton
Foxsports
25 July 2023

11. RICHMOND (9-8-1, 99.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 10

To be fair, it shouldn’t have been that close. The Hawks kicked the lights out on Saturday, going at almost five goals above expectation, so what felt like a dominant performance from them for the first three and a half quarters was actually a pretty even game dictated by accuracy. Still, the Tigers had the tenacity to complete the comeback - which was a bit mean because we were there with our Hawks-loving mum, on her birthday no less! - and keep their season alive. They haven’t been overly convincing over the last month though, so if they do sneak into the eight, we’re not expecting them to do a whole lot of damage.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-19-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-finals-contenders/news-story/7be0c7b1dacb1dcca403a338e890005b

[the claw]

Run home worst case scenario.
Melbourne -  searching for top 4 spot loss
Dogs - looking to secure their spot. at marvel loss
Stkilda - same boat as us. at marvel loss
Roos - if still in the hunt a win.
P/A - at a/o Looks like they will be playing for a top 2 spot and home ground finals. loss.

People can say what they like but that scenario is on the cards its more realistic than us winning 3 of the last 5.

even if we find a way to get there there is not a hope in hell of winning it all.

In many ways Melbourne may do us a favour if they win. we may start to prioritise kids and a changing of the guard.

With such a dysfunctional fwd line, and the head not the heart says  lets face it its actually almost bereft of actual fwds we just cannot win it.
I also think we are just one injury away from going from competetive in most games to easy beats.

Yep i can see the type of outraged posts with plenty of angst coming my way but at the end of the day i have thought all year in particular since lynch went down that it should be a redevelopment year with priority to kids.
I have not seen anything in the last 14 weeks to make me change my mind.

[Damo]

Run home worst case scenario.

Not like you to be “glass half empty”