Next 8 Games before the BYE

[the claw]

We have 18 points after 12 games. To finish 8th i reckon we need 48 points. with the draw we have that means we need to win 8 out of 10.
If 13 wins is required then we will have to win 9 of ten.

Looks like several clubs will finish on 12 wins and i think 7th will be safe with 13 wins. meaning we need to win at least 8 from here on in.

[mightytiges]

There's an extra round this year due to the Gather round. So, there's 11 games left.

We would need to win five of our next six (Freo, StK, Bris, Syd, WCE, Haw) to at least get realistically back in the running for a finals spot. We'd be 9-8-1 with five games to go (Melb, Dogs, StK, Norf, Port) and possibly have Lynch back in the side by then.

I don't see it happening though. Sadly, too many key injuries (esp. Lynch) and blowing too many winnable games already such as against the Dogs and Dreamtime has stuffed up our year. Any miraculous turnaround over the rest of the H/A season would need a repeat of 2014. 

[Damo]

Agree MT
Going to be very very very tough
Need to win the games before the bye to be any chance

[the claw]

Just so I understand
I say we need to win 8

Is your saying we need to win 8 an agreement on this, or ?????

Lol. What you amazed we agree or something.

Yeah MT just figured out we play 23 games this year that is a bonus but the wriggle room is still tight.
That probably means 13 wins 52 points is needed or in our case 54 points.

[one-eyed]

SEN SA tipping us to finish in the bottom 5.


Mark Bickley’s ladder prediction

... the former Adelaide premiership captain has both Carlton and Richmond finishing in the bottom third of the table.

The Blues and Tigers came into the season hoping to be in premiership contention, but both sit on just four wins and finals looks unlikely.

“I’ve got Richmond one spot higher in 14th with eight wins."

18th West Coast
17th Hawthorn
16th North Melbourne
15th GWS Giants
14th Richmond
13th Carlton

Jarrod Walsh

18th West Coast
17th North Melbourne
16th Hawthorn
15th Richmond
14th GWS Giants
13th Gold Coast

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/06/05/former-adelaide-captain-predicts-afl-ladder-bottom-6-at-halfway-point-of-the/

[Damo]

For arguments sake
Let’s say we beat Hawks, Nort, WCE

That’s 7 wins

He’s tipping us to got 1-7 in the other 8 games

Reckon we are better than that

[the claw]

Our record 4 - 7 - 1 = 18

 4 50/50 games and imo  im being a bit kind probably. None will be easy they are

Fremantle at optus. they have won their last 4?
Stkilda at mcg. I favor us for the fact its at the mcg but they have caused us all sorts of headaches in recent times.
Sydney at mcg. I give us a chance at the G. but sydney like us have had a lot of injuries and are slowly getting them back.Expect them to come home hard.Thought they beat us easy in rnd 5 at A/O.
W/B at Marvel. The fact its at Marvel i favor them besides they beat us in rnd 5 at home.

Imo we need to win at least Three  of these games just to stay alive.

4 losses imo or games where we will not be favorites.

Brisbane gabba
Melbourne Mcg.
StKilda Marvel.
P/A at  A/O.

Again need to win two at least just to stay alive.

3  wins where we will definately be favorites.
Wce optus
Hawthorn mcg
N/M Mcg.

Have to win all three there can be no slip ups

That would leave us.

12 WINS 10 LOSSES AND 1 DRAW = 50.The scenario allows for just 3 losses and is imo a best case scenario with 12 wins plus the draw getting us thru.

[Gracie]

Best case scenario is that we win the next 15 games straight

[Damo]

Best case scenario is that we win the next 15 games straight

The old
“My cock is two inches”


“From the floor”

[mightytiges]

Our record 4 - 7 - 1 = 18

 4 50/50 games and imo  im being a bit kind probably. None will be easy they are

Fremantle at optus. they have won their last 4?
Stkilda at mcg. I favor us for the fact its at the mcg but they have caused us all sorts of headaches in recent times.
Sydney at mcg. I give us a chance at the G. but sydney like us have had a lot of injuries and are slowly getting them back.Expect them to come home hard.Thought they beat us easy in rnd 5 at A/O.
W/B at Marvel. The fact its at Marvel i favor them besides they beat us in rnd 5 at home.

Imo we need to win at least Three  of these games just to stay alive.

4 losses imo or games where we will not be favorites.

Brisbane gabba
Melbourne Mcg.
StKilda Marvel.
P/A at  A/O.

Again need to win two at least just to stay alive.

3  wins where we will definately be favorites.
Wce optus
Hawthorn mcg
N/M Mcg.

Have to win all three there can be no slip ups

That would leave us.

12 WINS 10 LOSSES AND 1 DRAW = 50.The scenario allows for just 3 losses and is imo a best case scenario with 12 wins plus the draw getting us thru.

Our record at Docklands against the Dogs is pretty woeful. 2-1-9 since 2005  . The only wins both came in 2013. Mind you we haven't played them there since 2019 and it was our dumbness playing dry footy in the wet earlier this year that cost us the game. If we are to make the finals, we have to beat the sides like the Dogs that are also vying for the lower places of the Top 8.

Port in the last round could be a surprise one. If Port are securely locked into a top 2 spot, they may not be up for a dead rubber that is meaningless to them. Similar to when we played the Swans in the final round of 2014 at Stadium Australia. We jumped the Swannies with a 5 goal start and then hung on thanks to Rance's herculean efforts and Dusty's goal. 

[Damo]

Rance was king that day MT
One of the best games I’ve seen a Tiger play

[mightytiges]

Rance was king that day MT
One of the best games I’ve seen a Tiger play

Totally agree Damo. An incredible game. Rance was a human wall.

[the claw]

Our record 4 - 7 - 1 = 18

 4 50/50 games and imo  im being a bit kind probably. None will be easy they are

Fremantle at optus. they have won their last 4?
Stkilda at mcg. I favor us for the fact its at the mcg but they have caused us all sorts of headaches in recent times.
Sydney at mcg. I give us a chance at the G. but sydney like us have had a lot of injuries and are slowly getting them back.Expect them to come home hard.Thought they beat us easy in rnd 5 at A/O.
W/B at Marvel. The fact its at Marvel i favor them besides they beat us in rnd 5 at home.

Imo we need to win at least Three  of these games just to stay alive.

4 losses imo or games where we will not be favorites.

Brisbane gabba
Melbourne Mcg.
StKilda Marvel.
P/A at  A/O.

Again need to win two at least just to stay alive.

3  wins where we will definately be favorites.
Wce optus
Hawthorn mcg
N/M Mcg.

Have to win all three there can be no slip ups

That would leave us.

12 WINS 10 LOSSES AND 1 DRAW = 50.The scenario allows for just 3 losses and is imo a best case scenario with 12 wins plus the draw getting us thru.

Our record at Docklands against the Dogs is pretty woeful. 2-1-9 since 2005  . The only wins both came in 2013. Mind you we haven't played them there since 2019 and it was our dumbness playing dry footy in the wet earlier this year that cost us the game. If we are to make the finals, we have to beat the sides like the Dogs that are also vying for the lower places of the Top 8.

Port in the last round could be a surprise one. If Port are securely locked into a top 2 spot, they may not be up for a dead rubber that is meaningless to them. Similar to when we played the Swans in the final round of 2014 at Stadium Australia. We jumped the Swannies with a 5 goal start and then hung on thanks to Rance's herculean efforts and Dusty's goal.

Did say i was being a bit kind regards the 50/50 category.

Look we could play out of our skins for the rest of the year and its most likely we will miss finals.

I think all clubs are a bit bigger and more organised than just saying hey its mathematically possible to make finals. I think in a lot of cases that talk is to keep fans on board.

[one-eyed]

We're still aiming for finals according to McQualter in his presser today.

[Andyy]

Well it's not like we can target a good pick