Dogs or Tigers? Western Bulldogs vs Richmond: round 21 Friday night predictionsIt’s a ladder-shaping clash as the Western Bulldogs host Richmond on Friday night at Marvel: do the odds like the Dogs to bite back, or the Tigers to roar?
Jaymz Clements
Codesports
August 2, 2023 - 2:45PMWHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT* The betting favourite has won 15 straight times at Marvel.
* Richmond hasn’t covered the line in its last seven games when playing at Marvel.
* Four straight Bulldogs games have gone under the points total mark.
THE MATCH-UPA massive Friday clash awaits fans this week as the Western Bulldogs host Richmond in a September-shaping match up.
If the Bulldogs win, they should have no problems making the eight – with games against the Hawks and West Coast to come – while a Tigers victory would vault Richmond over the Dogs and give their finals chances a shot in the arm, despite a tough closing draw.
A loss for either wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it would put the loser behind the 8-ball in terms of playing finals.
The two teams last met in round 4 at the MCG, where the Bulldogs pulled off a ripper 89-84 win, their first in four tries against the Tigers since 2019.
The Dogs have lost three of their last four by an average of 6.3 points, while the Tigers have won three of four, but were run over by the Demons last week in losing by 32 points.
Richmond is ranked 11th and the Dogs 12th in the AFL for points per game at 82.3 and 81.1 respectively, while the Doggies defence sits 6th (conceding 76.7 an outing) and the Tigers 12th (84.1).
In its last two games at Marvel Richmond has managed 48 points against Gold Coast and 52 in a draw with Fremantle, while the past four Bulldogs games have all gone under the total points line.
CAN THE DOGS BITE BACK?Losing Josh Bruce to a knee injury is a huge blow for the Bulldogs; they were outscored 61-27 by GWS last week in Ballarat once he went down.
The calls for this forwardline to deliver consistently have grown louder as the season has progressed and despite the midfield bulls of Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore delivering excellent seasons, Adam Treloar adding class and Jack Macrae always getting plenty of the pill Luke Beveridge’s squad as a whole have been underwhelming.
Just like an early ‘00s bar doing shot specials, they need more from their Baileys; Smith, Dale and Williams.
At least their captain is standing up. In seven straight games and in 12 of his past 13, Bont has gone for 25+ disposals while kicking 11 goals across those contests and has also booted at least one goal in his last three against Richmond at Marvel.
His midfield mate Tom Liberatore is having the best season of his career, with Libba averaging over 28 touches a game and racking up 30+ in the last three straight games.
A lot of the inconsistency of the Dogs forwardline can be attributed to Amazing Disappearing Man Aaron Naughton who can look like the best forward in the comp and go completely MIA in the same game. But he does love playing the Tigers, having booted 3+ goals in three of his last four games against the Tigers.
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan isn’t doing his team too many favours in that department either.
Ugle-Hagan managed a solitary behind in last week’s lost to the Giants, and has now kicked 26.32 for the season. Against the Tigers in round 4 he could only muster two behinds, but will relish being back under the roof at Marvel, where he has kicked 20 of those goals in 10 games.
Cody ‘The Flea’ Weightman is another Marvel specialist with 47 goals in only 23 career games under the dome, with 18 of them coming over his last five games there.
ONE LAST ROAR?Last week’s loss to Melbourne was a big hit to the Tigers season and things don’t look to get much better as the Tigers head to the un-happy hunting ground of Marvel.
In the past five seasons the Tiges are 4-8-1 at Docklands and haven’t covered the line in seven straight games.
Richmond, however, will be looking to welcome back big ruckman Toby Nankervis from suspension and Jayden Short from injury.
If they want to turn that form line around, it will be thanks to their midfield cadre of Tim Taranto, Jacob Hopper and Shai Bolton, along with the ever-reliable Dustin Martin. The likes of Dion Prestia, Trent Cotchin and Liam Baker didn’t have enough influence late last week, and Taranto’s numbers have dropped over the past five weeks.
Taranto might have dipped a touch from his rampaging mid-season form, but still had 24 touches and a goal against the Demons last week. On top of averaging over 30 disposals a game this year, Timmy T has kicked a goal in 11 of his last 14 games.
But Bolton is thriving after having been thrust into the midfield by interim coach Andrew McQualter and averaging a career-high 22 disposals a game, while also still hitting the scoreboard, having kicked 23.23 for the season. Bolton also doesn’t mind taking on the Dogs, having snagged 2+ goals in three straight outings against the Sons of the Scray.
Dusty has been one of the constants over the past six weeks, averaging 26.5 touches a game in that stretch, and has kicked 2+ goals in Richmond’s last four games. Dusty averages over 27 disposals and a goal a game against the Dogs across his illustrious career; the Tigers will need that and more to have a hope of winning this week.
GOAL KICKER PLAYER PROPOver his long and storied career Ol’ Faithful Jack Riewoldt has a pretty handy record against the Western Bulldogs: in 16 games, he has 45 total goals, and has kicked at least 2+ in his last seven straight against them at Marvel.
Big Jack hasn’t managed multiple goals in a game since round 15 against Freo, but under the roof (where he has 124 majors in 47 games) he should find his way to a couple.
THE PICK
Richmond’s form (and inability to score) at Marvel is tough to ignore, but they have won six of their past eight games, while the Western Bulldogs have dropped three of four and their injury woes also pose a problem. Still, the Dogs should get Liam Jones back and are 6-4 at Marvel this season; it’s hard to see the Tigers having quite enough midfield firepower to match the Bont and co.
BEST BET: Western Bulldogs 1-39:
https://www.codesports.com.au/bet/afl/tips/dogs-or-tigers-western-bulldogs-vs-richmond-round-21-friday-night-betting-tips-odds-multi-picks-and-predictions/
