Draft Strategy

[DallasCrane]

I'm all for Cotchin if we get the No.1 pick. I think there is a bit to be said for drafting the best available talent.
If you've got holes that you need to fill, but 18 very good players, a decent coach should be able to formulate a game plan that plays to your strengths.

[mightytiges]

I probably don't know as many young draftees as you but I will give our first 3 picks ago (assuming we get a PP).

1) Cotchin - Kreuzer or Cotchin is fine by me, but would prefer Cotchin as he is a tough ball extractor, plus there are some very good ruck prospects a bit later in the draft. Good size, tough, clean, natural inside midfielder, will allow Lids flourish on a wing

17) McEvoy - Probably wishful thinking. Has the talent to be top 10, but sure do wish he slips through as he would be perfect for us. Really mobile, versatile and athletic. Also an excellent tap ruckman

18) Henderson - 196cm and big-bodied but athletic KPP. Exactly what we need for a KPP post. More of a forward, but could be converted to a backman. Also has excellent kicking skills for a big man

It is probably wishful thinking as you say bluey but if it went like that on draft day there'd be some very happy people at Tigerland.

[bluey_21]

I sure can wish 

[bluey_21]

Like I said the players I mentioned are top 10ers IMO, but there is the outside probability that they drop to our picks, unlikely though. Firstly Lachie suffered a major long-term injury which may prevent him from playing at the champs or seriously hinder him (a la Sellar last).

There is also a heap of talent that may be selected before him.

Vezpremi and Grimes are up there. Motlop is a freak. Sheedy will not be able to resist Rioli (or motlop for that matter), another Selwood will get plenty of attention. Ebert and Masten are highly rated non-Vics. Morton and Meyers are modern-day athletes who will get attention. Not to mention McNamara, Prismall, Bellchambers and Grant.

So here's hoping that my wish list comes true 

[bluey_21]

what Mojo thinks of Kreuzer

I can understand what you are saying.

But this ruck/forward "comparison' is not quite right.

Kreuzer is a legitimiate ruck. He is 199cms and 91kgs and of course still growing. He plays as a ruckman in the TAC and did so in the U18 Champs up against McEvoy (very good) and Leuenberger (elite) last year.

He CAN if needed play forward. He takes contested marks and will kick goals and is an elite user of the ball for a big man. He is also physical and very mobile.

BUT

His primary position is a ruck and he shows that in his junior football. Of course his team sometimes plays him at CHF or FF to pinch agoal or 2.

But he has 120 hitouts this year in 4 games (30 a game) and gives a pretty decent indication of where he is being played in the TAC.

He is not some 195cm half and half CHF/ruck. He is much taller and already lean and well built (for a kid) and has legitimate ruck skills and plays that position better than he does as a forward.

He had 41 hit oits on the weekend. 7 marks (4 contested) , 6 tackles, 19 possessions, 1 goal and was clearly best on ground from where I was standing.

A woird of warning for anyone looking at the best players named for the TAC. Sometimes it is not who was actually the best player on the day and coaches play ducks and drakes a bit. Trying to push up a kid into representative football and so forth. At least the stats are close to the mark (although I had a couple different for Kreuzer than the TAC site). Much better than when Xavier Ellis had all of his point kickins counted for his personal stats one day.

From memory he had 35 kicks but it was actually 15 when you deducted them.

Suffice to say Kreuzer will ruck in the AFL. He might "rest' forward. He might play deep forward for a quater or 2. He might even play down back at times while he is learning. But 3 years after he is drafted I expect him to be playing ruck for 70 to 80 minutes a game week in week out and competing well.

He is a ruck who can play forward at a pinch. You are not getting Jon Brown. You are getting Luke Darcy who early in his career (and making a good fist of it this year) was able to play as a tall forward for a while. But Kreuzer is taller but has the same sort of smarts, presence, skills and clean marking of a Luke Dracy. But the game is different now. The Dogs crying out for a tall forward and having great skills and run can play a Darcy forward but they surround him with smaller quick players to stop the rebound when the ball hits the ground.

Kreuzer sneaking forward from the ruck would be dangerous. Kreuzer playing full time forward I am not so sure would be anywhere near as effective.

Its the Nick Riewoldt types teams have trouble with. The Kossy types who are a little taller and bigger and not as quick and explosive and cant run all day and recover on the ground. They are just not as dangerous.
Its a Jon Brown who is huge but can run all day and is pretty agile and recovers quickly.

I am not just meaning the injuries to Kossy. I mean in general. The slower and more powerful talls are slowly becoming redundant. Kossy is very talented when fit but apart from a few games has just not shown he can dominate to the extent Riewoldt can.

Now without opening up a can of worms look at another tall who has great speed and reach and leap and agility. Lance Franklin. Compare him to a heavier and more physical kid like Roughead. Who is much slower and less athletic.

Even coimpare a Pat Ryder who is a graceful mover and compare him to Carltons Josh Kennedy. Kennedy is much bigger built and more powerful. But is not as agile and does not move as well. One is flourishing and 1 is not.

The 'trend" is for the more explosive talls to go much earlier. Even if they are toothpicks.

Ben Reid and Everitt go well before the bigger Mackenzie.

That does not mean a power tall wont make it. But the game is going towards players who can get off there man and take uncontested marks and out reach a flanker every once in a while. But the aim is to out run and keep them honest by being able to take a contested mark or 2. But its not so much about power. Its about front position and leading multiple times. Zig zag leads and doubling back and blocks off the ball and swinging around quickly to kick or give off.

Its about being 1m quicker over 20m and clearing space out and making it a footrace from a standing start on the lead out of the square. But being tall enough to stop a 6 foot 1 midfielder from being able to man mark you and take away your pace advantage

Its not about being 6 foot 5 and 105kgs anymore and being able to bench press 160kgs and putting up the white flag when the ball hits the ground. If you are going to be that size then be able to run a 15 beep which Brown and Hall and Tredrea (when fit) and Pav are all able to do.

http://www.puntroadend.com/yabbse/index.php?topic=26632.0

[bluey_21]

my own preliminary top 20

1) Kreuzer
2) Cotchin
3) Masten
4) Ebert
5) Grimes
6) Motlop
7) McEvoy
Bellchambers
9) Henderson
10) Morton
11) Myer
12) Grant
13) Veszpremi
14) Collier
15) Selwood
16) Rioli
17) Mulligan
18) Maric
19) Gaertner
20) Prismall

[bluey_21]

tried to make McEvoy and Henderson slip but couldn't 

As a result had to put Kreuzer number 1 (we need a ruckman) even though I prefer Cotchin

[bluey_21]

Kreuzer - Ruckman/fwd. Extremely mobile and athletic. awesome talent
Cotchin - Hard, classy inside midfielder. Also has damaging finishing skills
Masten - Classy ball winner similar to Cotchin, except skills not as good
Ebert - Ball magnet with great skills (cousin of Brad I think)
Grimes - Workhorse and ball magnet who doesn't stop running
Motlop - Freaky talent, superb skills, can turn a match in a few minutes
McEvoy - 2nd best ruck on offer. Offers great versatility, athleticism and skills
Bellchambers - Man mountain. Big, athletic, can ruck but also take a strong mark
Henderson - Big, athletic, strong mark and aggressive. Also great kicking skills
Morton - Tall, athletic but classy utility. Brother of Jarryd and Mitch
Myer - a la Morton except not brother of Jarryd and Mitch 
Grant - Tall, versatile and dashing player. On song is extremely dangerous
Veszpremi - Big unit, hard and aggressive, wins his own ball and damaging long kick
Collier - unlucky not to go last, tall running defender in the Birchall mould
Selwood - tough customer not to dissimilar to his brother adam
Rioli - dangerous small forward with excellent skills (sheedy won't pass on him  )
Mulligan - Freak athlete for his size, thumping kick could be anything
Maric - Classy fwd/midfielder. Good skills and strong mark
Gaertner - Freak athlete, played mainly in defence, could be anything but kicking is 50-50
Prismall - So much potential, not enough desire, should push top 20 if he puts in the effort

[jezza]

My big hope is that we see a midfielder, a ruckman and a KPP with our first 3 picks. I will be very disappointed if we see another mid-sized flanker type taken, we have enough of those and they are more the cream on top. We need to build the core of the side first before we worry about them. Similarly if we spend an early pick on a small forward type I would be gutted.

Pretty safe to say it won't be a KPP with pick 1, so it will be very interesting to see if there's anything there worth taking with our second or third pick.

[bluey_21]

My big hope is that we see a midfielder, a ruckman and a KPP with our first 3 picks. I will be very disappointed if we see another mid-sized flanker type taken, we have enough of those and they are more the cream on top. We need to build the core of the side first before we worry about them. Similarly if we spend an early pick on a small forward type I would be gutted.

Pretty safe to say it won't be a KPP with pick 1, so it will be very interesting to see if there's anything there worth taking with our second or third pick.

Mulligan and Gaertner are 2 options. Mulligan more of a ruck though. Both could become anything but would need serious work. Mulligan more on his positioning and overall footy smarts. Gaertner seriously needs to work on his kicking, extremely hit and miss.

[jezza]

Mulligan and Gaertner are 2 options. Mulligan more of a ruck though. Both could become anything but would need serious work. Mulligan more on his positioning and overall footy smarts. Gaertner seriously needs to work on his kicking, extremely hit and miss.

Have read some good things about Mulligan, good skills but very raw as a footballer. Not sure we can afford to use 2 of our first 3 picks on ruckmen though.

[bluey_21]

Mulligan and Gaertner are 2 options. Mulligan more of a ruck though. Both could become anything but would need serious work. Mulligan more on his positioning and overall footy smarts. Gaertner seriously needs to work on his kicking, extremely hit and miss.

Have read some good things about Mulligan, good skills but very raw as a footballer. Not sure we can afford to use 2 of our first 3 picks on ruckmen though.

Mulligan looks an excellent prospect. Not worth top 20, probably won't last through to our 3rd rounder though

[jezza]

Have you seen much of Selwood so far? Hard to get a handle on him to date, some very mixed opinions on him reading other boards. One guy who's opinion I value and watches a lot of TAC games through the year reckons he would be a great get for us and could be a real centre square ball winner for us who loves the physical side of things.

[bluey_21]

haven't seen a great deal, just 2 matches against the Ranges and Oakleigh. Looks the goods and comes with the Selwood surname so that is pretty good

[mightytiges]

Win tonight and we slip down to pick 3 on current standings behind the Dees and Blues = neither Kreuzer nor Cotchin  .