But I think you are missing my point completely mt. I agree that we need to keep our picks and trade aggressively for more. It is a numbers game, and your own example in Geelong actually proves that you don't need picks in the top 5 to be successful (though, sure, if you get them you don't knock them back!). And yes, Geelong have had some luck with F/S picks (is it luck?) and we have had bad luck with Cogs, Brown, Polak etc. I think I could make a workable argument that our F/S picks (Roach, Raines) might be suffering the same fate as other high pick under-performers (eg Tambling, JON, Pettifer etc).
Far more important is the structure of the club, the environment that you create, and the processes that you induct draftees into. Without the right elements in place, you may as well stop now, which is what we have effectively done for 25 years. We have pinned our hopes on a succession of saviours (be they coaches, players or administrators) and it hasn't got us anywhere because we continue to believe that they are the answer.
The answer is not in making sure we don't win games to ensure a slightly higher pick. Whether we get pick 3 or pick 8 this year is not going to make the difference that turns us into a successful club. History has taught us that. It is far more important that we start adopting an absolute best practice attitude throughout the club, from the top down, and that starts with preparing our players to win at all costs, to prepare with winning as the priority, and then doing everything we can to support them in this outcome.
The players need to get the message that the answer lies within them, not with some 17 year old kid running around in the TAC cup. Adopting a "tanking" approach gives people the message that the answers lie elsewhere. That is not the right message to be sending.
But FFV how are you going to implement these structures and create this new playing group environment if you just continually add just a couple of kids each year (and only one kid in the top 20-25) into a failing playing group that hardly changes from year to year because you don't have the early draft picks to allow you to cut deeper into the list at once and make the changes fast enough to remove those that are creating the poor losing environment. It's a catch 22 situation. You can't cut deep effectively unless you have a number of early picks and you only get a top 20 pick in our situation but either trading someone with high trade value (JON, Schulz, McMahon, Petts, King etc won't do that) or you tank and grab the priority pick which gives you 3 picks inside the top 20 and access to more talented kids.
As Ramps said tanking is not so much about having a top 3 pick rather than pick 8 (although they are more certainties to make it especially in recent drafts) but the fact it gives you a number of early picks rather than just one. If you don't have early top 20 picks you're then replacing a Jake King with a kid picked up with pick 60 or 70+ whose chances of making it or being any better than Kingy are minimal. With a priority pick you've replaced King with a top 20 kid. You're right FFV it is a numbers game. Gaining a priority pick is playing the numbers. It gives you more options in terms of culling your list further in one go and replacing it with better talent. You are upgrading the quality of your list. You're weeding out as quickly as possible those who continually fail the team. There's no point talking about raising standards and demanding a winning culture if you continue to make minimal changes to the playing list and hold onto the same ordinary players who let you down time and time again because you don't have enough early picks to replace the dud players with better quality. You need to turnover the list as quickly as possible to see real change. It's a two-fold action - tank to clear the decks faster and replace with better quality.
Once you have the more talented list then you can demand more of them and raise the bar as they are far more capable of reaching the elite standards required compared to our existing group who in the main are just incapable of reaching these standards in the first place through lack of talent and skills (and yes application as well). Working harder alone though won't cut it at this level if you don't have the elite talent to begin with.
For others to say we could've, should've, might've been 7-3 if we waved a magical wand and had a winning culture is with all due respect wishful thinking. The fact is we're 2-9 for a reason - we are simply not good enough. We have far too many players on our list that are simply not good enough to begin with. We have far too many list cloggers and passengers. Too many triers and not enough top liners. If Friday night proved one thing it was the massive gulf in class between us and any decent side. The boys actually tried on the night but they were stuffed by the 3rd quarter just keeping up with the doggies to half time (the inefficient gameplan doesn't help us run out games mind you). The bulldogs cut us to ribbons and it only a matter of time before the game was going to be blown open. We've played so much catch up footy this year because we aren't good enough. Trying and working harder isn't going to make us a better team alone. We need MUCH more talented footballers on our list. We have a few classy players but nowhere near enough. The club under Wallace's coaching only did half a job during his reign. We are only halfway there at best. The next coach will need to complete the rebuilding process and with the Gold Coast coming in he and our recruiting staff are going to need all the early picks they can get to do it.
