Before the season started, 5 "locks" for the Top 8:-
Magpies, Hawks, Swans, Cats and the Eagles.
Still going to leave Pies and Eagles in this mini ladder for the time being.
Bombers and Freo becoming "locks" for the 8 in the next month.
Current status
1. Essendon 28 points 142%
2. Freo 26 points 126
3. Collingwood 24 97%*
4. Weales 20 points 123%
5. Crowbots 20 points 120%
6. Blues 20 points 112.6%
7. Power 20 points 108%
8. Richmond 20 points 107%
9. Norf 12 points 107%
Gold Coast are ahead of Roos on 16 points but with Cats, Roos, Crows and Vombres in the next month will fall away from the pack.
If they beat either Roos or Crows, it might be different.
Bombres appear safe and secure but have won something like 2 games in June since Hird has been coach and with Swans, Blues, Gold Coast and the Eagles away - will prove if there is something in this June curse.
Freo have Crows, Lions, Roos and Cats. Win 3 of these and it would be near impossible for them to miss finals. Beating Crows and Roos probably in our interest now.
Pies have beaten Lions and then have the dream run of Demons, Bulldogs and Power to gain points and lost %. Beating Power helps us but also starts ruling out another top 8 spot.
Weagles have Tigers, Saints, Bombres and Hawks. Reality is this game Monday night is a bit of a season shaper. We win and the Eagles face a real battle to even make the 8 with a number of tricky games in the run home.
Crow bots have Dockers, Tigers, Swans and GC - another key game for us. Crows lose to us and it impacts their top 8 chances significantly. They have a very tough run home.
Blues have Giants before copping Bombers, Hawks and Swans. Ideal world sees them lose those last 3 to keep our season open.
Nort have Saints, Dockers, GC and GC - this draw is why I leave them on the ladder for the time being. They must win every game in the next month if they want to win 10 of the next 13.
Power look stuffed already and with Bulldogs, Giants, Pies and Swans look vulnerable to an upset or 2 to complete the unravelling of their season.
Tigers have Eagles, Crowbots, Bulldogs and Saints. We need to win at least 3 and probably all 4 to keep open the spots Weagles and Crows currently have.
Not impossible but we have to start playing bette football - starting Monday night.
There is still hope!