The battle for the bottom 4 of the top 8

[one-eyed]

Freo won the WA derby so that sends us 3 games clear of those sides outside the Top 8.


https://twitter.com/Footynews23/status/356344521296068608/photo/1


 

[one-eyed]

The run home: round 16

By staff reporters
afl.com.au
8:42pm AEST Sunday, July 14, 2013


4. Sydney Swans
46 points (11 wins, three losses, one draw) 142.2 per cent

The premiers remain right in the hunt for the top four after thrashing Greater Western Sydney for their third consecutive win. But the Swans face a tough run home that mirrors their run into the finals last year, with West Coast at Patersons Stadium their next assignment and three of their final four games coming against Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn.

The run home:
Rd 17: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 18: Richmond at the SCG
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 22: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at ANZ Stadium

5. Fremantle
46 points (11 wins, three losses, one draw) 126.3 per cent

The Dockers remain on track to challenge for a top-two finish after their hard-earned Derby win over West Coast. The only contests that appear to present issues are those against Richmond at the MCG and Carlton at Etihad Stadium a fortnight later in round 19. They face St Kilda again and have easy-looking outings against Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne.

The run home:
Rd 17: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 18: Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Greater Western Sydney at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium

6. Richmond
40 points (10 wins, five losses) 116.7 per cent

After finally notching their maiden win against Gold Coast – and their first win at Cairns' Cazaly's Stadium – the Tigers will almost certainly play finals for the first time since 2001. A push for a top-four spot seems unlikely given Richmond faces Fremantle, the Sydney Swans and Hawthorn in the next three rounds and Essendon in the final round, but such a tough draw should prepare the Tigers for the intensity of finals football.

The run home:
Rd 17: Fremantle at the MCG
Rd 18: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG

7. Collingwood
40 points (10 wins, five losses) 109.4 per cent

Back on track after impressive wins against Carlton and Adelaide, the Magpies will all but book a finals berth if they beat Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney in the next two weeks. Their run home becomes drastically harder after that with return clashes against top sides Hawthorn, the Swans and Essendon, the trio having belted the Pies by an average of 49 points earlier this season.

The run home:
Rd 17: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 18: Greater Western Sydney at the MCG
Rd 19: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 22: West Coast at the MCG
Rd 23: North Melbourne at the MCG

8. Port Adelaide
32 points (eight wins, seven losses) 108.9 per cent

With Carlton and West Coast breathing down their neck, the Power is probably the only team in the top eight that can realistically miss the finals. But Port's draw is relatively kind, with just two of their final seven games coming against fellow top-eight teams – Geelong (round 20) and Fremantle (round 22). Four of those remaining games are on their home turf.

The run home:
Rd 17: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at AAMI Stadium

-------------------------------------------------

9. Carlton
28 points (seven wins, eight losses) 111.4 per cent

The Blues broke a four-game losing streak with their win over St Kilda to put themselves just one game outside the eight. They face an 'eight-point' game against North Melbourne next round when a win would effectively end the Roos' season. If the Power falter in the run home, the Blues' draw should give them an edge over West Coast, while they are effectively two games ahead of the Brisbane Lions given their far superior percentage.

The run home:
Rd 17: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium

10. West Coast
28 points (seven wins, eight losses) 107.1 per cent

The Eagles remain just one game outside the eight despite their Derby loss to Fremantle. West Coast has to bank three wins against the Bulldogs, Gold Coast and Adelaide, but the other four matches will be very tough. Four matches at home does not look as appealing as it would have in previous years given the Eagles have lost six of eight at Patersons this season.
 
The run home:
Rd 17: Sydney Swans at Patersons Stadium
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Gold Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Geelong at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 23: Adelaide at Patersons Stadium

11. North Melbourne
24 points (six wins, nine losses) 116.1 per cent

North Melbourne's finals chances appear shot after yet another fadeout loss against the Brisbane Lions. With a draw that includes clashes with the current top three teams, Hawthorn, Geelong and Essendon, along with Collingwood in round 23, the Roos need a miracle.

The run home:
Rd 17: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG

12. Adelaide
24 points (six wins, nine losses) 102.5 per cent

The Crows' losses to West Coast and Collingwood all but snuffed out their slim finals hopes, with a tough run looming and at least six wins required from seven games. Preliminary finalists last year, they are still a way off the level they set last year and with games against two premiership contenders and two Western Australian road trips to come, finals football is practically out of reach.

The run home:
Rd 17: Geelong at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Patersons Stadium

13. Brisbane Lions
24 points (six wins, nine losses) 80.3 per cent

The Lions' comeback win over North Melbourne kept their finals hopes alive but they remain extreme long shots. The Lions have the easiest draw of the teams trying to force their way into the top eight, with winnable games against Melbourne at the MCG, and St Kilda, GWS and the Western Bulldogs at home. However, their poor percentage means the Lions probably can't afford to drop another game.

The run home:
Rd 17: Melbourne at TIO Stadium
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at the Gabba
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Greater Western Sydney at the Gabba
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-07-14/the-run-home

[Stripes]

Brisbane could come from behind and make the finals with that draw. 

Suspect the eight will remain unchanged but Carlton is the smokey.

[one-eyed]

Finals wannabes left to fight among themselves

    Rohan Connolly
    The Age
    July 17, 2013

As we move into the last third of the season, the AFL ladder can be roughly divided into three groups of clubs, each with vastly different aspirations over the final seven rounds.

At the top end, there's seven who are either already pencilling in their plans for a flag assault, or at least starting to think about how they will handle September, notwithstanding an unforeseen catastrophe, or in Essendon's case, administrative intervention.

At the bottom, there's five for whom 2014 has become the priority. St Kilda, for example, is one of several clubs starting to look at remedying a list riddled with holes, Melbourne is pursuing a top-quality coach, and Greater Western Sydney, given continued poor performance and crowds, is thinking bigger picture than that.

And for the other half-dozen in the middle group, it's about a virtual lightning premiership, the spoils the one spot in the final eight that appears left up for grabs.

...

Richmond, in contrast, one of the Blues' opponents in the race to September, has built a nice little buffer for itself. I've got the Tigers winning potentially only two of their final seven games and still reaching a first September campaign for a dozen years.





http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/finals-wannabes-left-to-fight-among-themselves-20130716-2q2dj.html

[Darth Tiger]

Interesting from Rohan - does he tip Essendrug to win the rest of their 7 games ? Geez he is optimistic on Carlton's chances to win 4 games.

Percentage will be an important factor for Richmond's finishing position, so must remain very competitive against the top 4 clubs over the next 3 games.

[mat073]

So important to win this weekend.

The stars and moon have aligned with key outs for the dockers...I can't believe how lucky we are.


Here is finals served on a silver platter if we are good enough


This is it...this will be the most important match Richmond has played in a decade.

win on Sunday and we can afford to drop a 50/50 game later in the year.

[Phil Mrakov]

Lol Rohan tips us to lose to both Carlton (why?) and Essondon (his team).

[Tigeritis™©®]

Lol Rohan tips us to lose to both Carlton (why?) and Essondon (his team).

Probably because our history of winning games to ensure a finals berth isn't great.

But boy I hope he's wrong. Love nothing more than slamming those cheats right of finals contention.

[Eat_em_Alive]

If that's his professional opinion, that's fine. But I can't see a team finish on 7th with 12 wins. Maybe 13 but not 12.
What I find interesting is the teams Rihanna has Carlton beating....
Gold coast, bulldogs, rich and port in aami.
GC they should beat, dogs they will beat. Rich is a 50/50 and port at aami. Who are also vying for the 8 and who have beaten Collingwood and Sydney at aami. They were also able to come from behind and beat Eagles who are another team competing against blues and port.
I think Rohan's picked up salmonella from the pizza crusts under Robbo's couch

[tiga]

Bloody hell look at the Dockers run home.  We won't be passing them anytime soon. Us and Port are the only ones who will challenge them. And I can't see the Swans faltering either so top 4 for us is highly unlikely unless we win all our remaining games.

[tony_montana]

should win 4 or 5 of our remaining games. 5th looking a distinct possibility

[tiga]

should win 4 or 5 of our remaining games. 5th looking a distinct possibility

Who do you see dropping Tony for us to get into 5th? The Bombers?

[mightytiges]

Carlton beating North (contrary to most of the pundits' predictions) and moving up into the Eight should be a reminder that we can't rely on other teams and results doing us any favours. We need to win beginning tomorrow and control our own destiny.

[Tigeritis™©®]

Carlton beating North (contrary to most of the pundits' predictions) and moving up into the Eight should be a reminder that we can't rely on other teams and results doing us any favours. We need to win beginning tomorrow and control our own destiny.

Yes.   

[Hellenic Tiger]

Carlton beating North (contrary to most of the pundits' predictions) and moving up into the Eight should be a reminder that we can't rely on other teams and results doing us any favours. We need to win beginning tomorrow and control our own destiny.

Yes.   

X2