AFL preliminary final preview: Richmond v CollingwoodPeter Ryan
The Age
16 Sep 2018Richmond and Collingwood represent the best example of football's latest iteration, both teams saying goodbye to possession football and hello to quick ball movement and chaotic entries inside 50.
It may not be pretty but that won't matter because few clashes have been as anticipated as this one between two clubs with the most fanatic supporters in the competition.
They have not played a final since the 1980 decider and would have been long odds to play each other in a preliminary final this century at the end of 2016, let alone just two years later.
An upset win by the Magpies would be comparable to Carlton's memorable victory over Essendon in the 1999 preliminary final and deny the Tigers the chance to become back-to-back premiers for the first time since 1973-74.
Collingwood's path to the preliminary final has followed a similar track to the one the Tigers took in 2017 with an under-siege coach keeping his job after a club wide review and then taking the team from 13th into third spot.
Unlike the Tigers who have remained free of injury for most of the past two seasons, the Magpies have kept coming despite suffering injury after injury, losing a tight qualifying final to the Eagles before bouncing back against the Giants.
As a result Richmond have maintained flag favouritism for most of the season while the Magpies' flag chances have been repeatedly written off.
But that will mean little to the hordes of supporters following the result as Collingwood has sensed all season they are closing in on the Tigers.
HISTORY LESSONRichmond have beaten Collingwood twice this season and have not lost to them in their past four encounters.
On both occasions in 2018, the Magpies have remained in the contest until three-quarter time before being blown away in the final quarter.
But the Magpies took confidence from their most recent match as they were in touch at the final break before any hope of keeping pace was ruined when defenders Jeremy Howe and Matt Scharenberg were both lost to injury.
In that game Collingwood won contested possession and out-tackled the Tigers but they were not good enough to match Richmond over four quarters. The Tigers had an even contribution with every player collecting between 11 and 22 disposals.
It won't mean much to anyone but the fans, but Collingwood has not beaten Richmond in a final since 1937.
X-FACTORRichmond have Dusty Martin, who sparked their qualifying final victory, but they also have brilliant livewire forwards Jack Higgins and Dan Rioli.
Martin can expect Levi Greenwood to run with him but the reigning Brownlow medallist only needs a couple of moments to turn the game Richmond's way.
Higgins is a smart footballer who plays beyond his years, his audacious goal against the Magpies in round 19 one of the year's highlights, while Collingwood don't have an obvious match up for Rioli.
Jordan De Goey is Collingwood's obvious X-factor in front of goal but Brodie Grundy has a chance to expose Toby Nankervis and deny Richmond the forward 50 entries they need to prevail.
TACTICSGet the ball forward, quickly and without care, so the opposition have to defend under pressure in dangerous positions.
Lack of finesse is a Tiger trademark and the Magpies have improved by adopting a similar game that prioritises territory over perfect ball movement.
Both teams like to bring the ball to ground in their front half and fight to build pressure and create repeat entries inside 50.
The Tigers are the best team at scoring from turnovers by a long way and are incredibly efficient too but the Magpies have built their game on defending hard before racing the ball up the ground to rob the opposition of time to reset their defence.
Both have small forward lines that compete in the air but are frightening when the ball hits the ground and if you are not clean with the ball they will swarm all over you and run hard forward.
PREDICTIONIt would be folly to tip against Richmond based on their form in finals, at the MCG and their recent wins against Collingwood.
However Collingwood have a similar blend of experience and explosive, precocious youth and a game style to worry the Tigers.
As always the midfield battle will be critical as both teams depend on gaining territory.
Richmond's Toby Nankervis leads Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards and Kane Lambert into battle but the Magpies should win contested ball with Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar and Taylor Adams as well credentialled.
Richmond have a star forward in Jack Riewoldt that the Magpies lack while only Howe sits on a par with Alex Rance, Dylan Grimes, David Astbury and Nick Vlastuin when defenders are mentioned.
Richmond by 24 points.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/preliminary-final-preview-richmond-v-collingwood-20180913-p503na.html
