AFL Draft 2019

[one-eyed]

Cal Twomey's latest phantom draft from a week ago. He has Bianco at our pick 19.

Talk on SEN yesterday had Melbourne looking at taking Jackson at pick 3.

Cal Twomey's 2019 Phantom Form Guide: October update

AFL.com.au
Callum Twomey
Oct 24, 2019

1. Rowell
2. Anderson
3. Green (+2)
4. Serong (-1)
5. Young (-1)
6. Flanders
7. Ash
8. Kemp
9. Robertson (+2)
10. McAsey (-1)
11. D.Stephens (-1)
12. Weightman
13. Worrell 
14. Jackson
15. Macginness (+1)
16. Henry  (-1)
17. Bergman (+4)
18. Day
19. Bianco (+1)
20. Gould (-3)
21. Mead (-2) .... Port's F/S.
22. De Koning
23. C.Stephens (+5)
24. Rivers (-2)
25. Sharp
26. Jones (+4)
27. Williams (-1)
28. Dow (re-entered)
29. Taylor
30. Ralphsmith (new)


Out of previous lists: Schoenberg, Smith, Taheny.

Full summaries here: https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-10-23/cal-twomeys-2019-phantom-form-guide-october-update

[mightytiges]

how do we get a pick around 10 or a pick inside 15.
Really like Kemp and it will take a top 10 pick. Also like the look of McAsey and he could be there somewhere between 10 and 15.
The other one i like whos a good sized mid and hes also had injuries Cooper Stevens.

Need to trade picks 19 + 38 + 56 (1,607 points) to the likes of:
Melbourne - pick 8 (1,551)
Carlton - pick 9 (1,469)
Fremantle - pick 10 (1,395)

Or maybe 19 + 39 + 41 (1,806) could get it done. Fremantle has pick 7 also (1,644).

Then go to the draft with 3 picks.

Have to hope that they need the points for bidding etc, which isn't too likely I should think.

The only club with a top 10 pick I see being willing to trade out is GWS (pick 6) if they can't convince Melbourne nor Adelaide to swap in their attempt to get Green before any bids (Swans are likely to bid for him at 5). If the Giants are going to have to use most of their draft points to match a bid which prevents them from taking another kid they are interested in then they might as well trade out for the points and try to gain something else in return they can use later on in the draft or next year.

It's hard for us though as we have a weaker set of picks to offer as a swap compared to other clubs after being screwed over by not getting that end of 1st rounder for Ellis  . For instance, Freo could offer GWS picks 10 & 22 as a swap for picks 6 & 40. That would give Freo picks 6 and 7 to use on other kids before needing to match a bid for their NGA prospect Liam Henry; while GWS use 10 + later picks to match any bid on Green and would still have pick 22 to use on another top kid.

We will probably be restricted to using picks 38, 39 & 41 to move up the second round via a swap.
Eg via Hawthorn:
Rich get 30 & 54 ( = 849 pts )
Haw get 39 & 41 ( = 858 pts )
Leaves us with picks 19, 30, 38, 54, 56, 75, ....

Or via North say (less realistic):
Rich get 27 & 47 ( = 1019 pts )
Norf get 39, 41 & 56 ( = 1052 pts )
Leaves us with picks 19, 27, 38, 47, 75, ...

We have 33 senior listed players and 6 rookies. So it depends if we are planning to use either 5 picks in the National draft or use only 4 and keep a spot spare for any possible future Stack or Pickett.

[Gracie]

What advantage do Hawthorn and North get in those scenarios? Why would they agree to swap?

[Rampsation]

I reckon dealing with hawthorn is our best bet.
What are our picks 38, 39, 41 and 56 worth in points?
Is it possible we swap those picks for Hawthorns first. We then pick Maginness Hawthorn matches with our picks we gave them and then we take the next pick.hawthorn then take all there other selections. Wr go to the draft with say 11 and 19.

[Gracie]

I reckon dealing with hawthorn is our best bet.
What are our picks 38, 39, 41 and 56 worth in points?
Is it possible we swap those picks for Hawthorns first. We then pick Maginness Hawthorn matches with our picks we gave them and then we take the next pick.hawthorn then take all there other selections. Wr go to the draft with say 11 and 19.

Those 4 picks total 1517points. Pick 11 is 1329. So we would probably want their pick #63 as well. Those two total 1441

It doesn't favour Hawthorn to get us to agree to pick Maginness at 11. They would want him to slide down so it costs less in matching points. It would only favour Hawthorn if a bid came in the top 10. With the 20% discount they get then they might only have to use 3 of the 4 picks we gave them and they would have then effectly moved their pick 63 up the order to 56 or 41

[one-eyed]

KYSIAH PICKETT

Few draftees can challenge Kysiah Pickett for incredible AFL bloodlines ... Another one of Kysiah’s uncles is Richmond premiership player Marlion Pickett. ...

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/find-out-which-draft-hopefuls-have-family-links-in-the-afl-world/news-story/a3a643f4fa47ad6f5d7c7e44ea0fdcb3

[one-eyed]

Come across this.
If Gws can't get a deal done for pick 3.
We will offer picks 38/39 & next year's 1st for pick 6.(38 on Green)
Apparently we're very keen on Trent Rivers or Devon Robertson.
Rapt it happened.We keep 19.
6/19/41/56.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/trade-draft-targets-part-ii.1230261/post-63547104

GWS to get Green combine 38+39+40+59+60 = 1644 points.
Equivalent to pick 4 = 2034-20% = 1627 points.

[Gracie]

Come across this.
If Gws can't get a deal done for pick 3.
We will offer picks 38/39 & next year's 1st for pick 6.(38 on Green)
Apparently we're very keen on Trent Rivers or Devon Robertson.
Rapt it happened.We keep 19.
6/19/41/56.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/trade-draft-targets-part-ii.1230261/post-63547104

GWS to get Green combine 38+39+40+59+60 = 1644 points.
Equivalent to pick 4 = 2034-20% = 1627 points.

We would effectively move next year's pick 18 to a top 10 pick this year for a cost of a couple of end of second round picks. Works for me. Then need to get a good mid to take over main mid duties in 3/4 years time at #6(#7)

[Diocletian]

Can't see GWS doing that, especially with us.

[The Machine]

Any one of:
Rivers;
Stephens;
Robertson;
Sharp; or
Taylor
will do with our first.

[YellowandBlackBlood]

Taylor has a lot of X factor.......

[Diocletian]

Taylor doesn't really fill any urgent need but also the sort of raw pure talent we like to target with earlier picks these days ala Bolton, Balta, RCD...most likely of the names to be still available if we don't trade up...will be between him and De Koning I reckon...still the latter for me though....

[mightytiges]

What advantage do Hawthorn and North get in those scenarios? Why would they agree to swap?

The North one is less realistic as I said but the Hawthorn one was actually mentioned by a Hawk supporter on their forum. With Finn Maguiness as their father-son, they would be interested in having a bunch of 3 picks around 40 like we currently have. They would end up with picks 11, 39, 41, 42, 63 after such a swap. With picks 11 + 63 including the 20% discount they effective have points equivalent to pick 5 which should cover any bid on Maguiness if it comes. That swap then enables them to draft another 3 kids inside the top 42 (early 3rd round) of an even midrange draft.

[Gracie]

What advantage do Hawthorn and North get in those scenarios? Why would they agree to swap?

The North one is less realistic as I said but the Hawthorn one was actually mentioned by a Hawk supporter on their forum. With Finn Maguiness as their father-son, they would be interested in having a bunch of 3 picks around 40 like we currently have. They would end up with picks 11, 39, 41, 42, 63 after such a swap. With picks 11 + 63 including the 20% discount they effective have points equivalent to pick 5 which should cover any bid on Maguiness if it comes. That swap then enables them to draft another 3 kids inside the top 42 (early 3rd round) of an even midrange draft.

But a club has to use their picks in order to match a bid. Or at least that is what I think. So they would need to use up all of pick 11 point value then use pick 39.

A bid at #5 has value of 1878 and Hawthorn have to match 80% of that or 1502. Pick 11 has 1329 points so it loses all of its value and drops to last spot in the order. Hawthorn then have to find 173 points from their next pick, which would be #39. Value of 39 is 446 less the 173 leaves 273 points on that pick and therefore the 39 drops down the order and slots in at pick #50

if they keep pick 30 then the 173 points off pick 30 value of 629 leaves 456 and then pick 30 drops down to slot in at pick 39. So Hawthorn do not need to trade at all. They already cover a pick 5 bid and they gain every pick the player drops down the order.

[mightytiges]

Come across this.
If Gws can't get a deal done for pick 3.
We will offer picks 38/39 & next year's 1st for pick 6.(38 on Green)
Apparently we're very keen on Trent Rivers or Devon Robertson.
Rapt it happened.We keep 19.
6/19/41/56.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/trade-draft-targets-part-ii.1230261/post-63547104

GWS to get Green combine 38+39+40+59+60 = 1644 points.
Equivalent to pick 4 = 2034-20% = 1627 points.

We would effectively move next year's pick 18 to a top 10 pick this year for a cost of a couple of end of second round picks. Works for me. Then need to get a good mid to take over main mid duties in 3/4 years time at #6(#7)

A great deal for us especially if we have a free agent in mind next year.

However, I don't see GWS doing it when other clubs can offer them better picks. For instance, Freo can offer picks 10 & 22 which then allows GWS to use 10 + later picks on Green and still have another high-ish pick (22) in this year's stronger draft which is probably rated a better pick in terms of the quality of kids available than our late first rounder in next year's weaker draft (assuming we play finals in 2020).