Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]

[Tiger Khosh]

The way we are playing could win all 3 and equally likely could lose all 3. It really is the age old saying ‘one week at a time’

[Rampsation]

Gotta get Dustys hammy 100% right before finals.

[Broadsword]

Gotta get Dustys hammy 100% right before finals.

Agreed. I've got 8/1 on Dusty's hammy winning the Norm Smith.

[Rampsation]

 You took unders. Shoulda asked for 20s

[Broadsword]

You took unders. Shoulda asked for 20s

Mate it's a shoe-in. 

[Andyy]

Need to drop Edwards and play a kid.

The kids are hungrier and that's the bottom line.

If everyone gets fit - Gibcus, Dusty, Grimes.

Maybe we could give things a shake if we have our day.

[one-eyed]

Foxsports now tipping us to finish 8th (provided we beat Port).

----------

Run Home after Round 20

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
July 31st, 2022 7:59 pm

- Richmond’s comeback over the Lions puts them back as favourites for eighth, but if they lose to the Power next week and the Western Bulldogs beat Fremantle, that’ll flip once again. And both teams can make it if the Blues finish 0-3;

9. RICHMOND (10-8-1, 114%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 23: Essendon at the MCG

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: Not enough data (82% from 11-8, 47% from 10-9)

Remaining fixture difficulty: 13th-hardest

And breathe, Richmond fans.

Finally winning a close one - that sure as hell wasn’t close in the second term - has the Tigers back as our favourites for eighth.

Now the draw actually comes in handy, as it’s like holding an infinite percentage lead over the Bulldogs (though a win obviously would’ve been better).

The Tigers should only need to match the Dogs’ record over the next three weeks to play finals. On paper, both look good chances of going 2-1, which would be enough for Damien Hardwick’s men to sneak in.

They’ll know heading into Saturday night’s game against the Power what they need, because the Bulldogs play Fremantle earlier in the day. If the Dogs win and the Tigers lose, then the Dogs become favourites for eighth again.

The Saints, the actual holders of eighth, could obviously ruin all of this but if you’ve watched them play and think they’re going to beat two of Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney... well, that sounds optimistic.

As long as they go 2-1 they could also pass an 0-3-finishing Carlton, so that’s another door that’s open to Richmond even if they lose to Port Adelaide.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.35 wins, finishing 8th

-----------------------

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Geelong Cats (17.2 projected wins)
2. Melbourne (15.75)
3. Sydney Swans (15.15)
4. Collingwood (15.15)
5. Brisbane Lions (14.75)
6. Fremantle (14.3)
7. Carlton (13.35)
8. Richmond (12.35)
---------------------------
9. Western Bulldogs (12.05)
10. St Kilda (12)
11. Gold Coast Suns (10.7)
12. Port Adelaide (9.75)
13. Essendon (8.35)
14. Hawthorn (8.1)
15. Adelaide Crows (7.55)
16. GWS Giants (6)
17. West Coast Eagles (2.85)
18. North Melbourne (2.65)

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Geelong Cats vs Collingwood at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Brisbane Lions vs Richmond at the Gabba

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Fremantle vs Carlton at Optus Stadium

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Sydney Swans at the MCG

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-the-run-home-after-round-20-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/8bef43cce0c7b8e41be3c1d29ad65b24

[one-eyed]

https://twitter.com/sope_creations/status/1554029775727267840

[Broadsword]

Love that.

Go you good things. 

[one-eyed]

"What hasn't been spoken about enough is that Richmond are a bloody good team.

"They're certainly up there with the best and they brought that on the weekend. I don't think the ladder position represents where they're at."

- Eric Hipwood.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/812076/lions-remaining-optimistic-despite-sunday-heartbreaker-says-tall-forward

[one-eyed]

AFL Power Rankings after Round 20

Max Laughton and Ben Waterworth
Foxsports
2 August 2022

1. Geelong
2. Melbourne
3. Sydney
4. Brisbane
5. Collingwood
6. Fremantle

7. RICHMOND (10-8-1, 114.0%)

Last week’s ranking: 8

That was one mightily impressive comeback. Just when we thought Richmond had completely lost the ability to close out tight games, it produces the comeback of 2022, turning a 42-point deficit into a seven-point win. Noah Cumberland has added an exciting edge to the Tigers’ forward 50, while Shai Bolton … well, some believe he’s now the best player in the competition. There’s still a mini watch on their defence – they’ve 89 points or more in five of their past six games – while the fact they’re ranked 18th for pressure applied across those past six matches is a concern. Still, you wouldn’t want to play the Tigers in an elimination final …


8. Western Bulldogs
9. Carlton
10. Port Adelaide
11. Gold Coast
12. St Kilda

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-power-rankings-after-round-20-fox-footy-ladder-analysis-highlights-top-eight-every-club-ranked-predictions/news-story/7cea3a11d7bba38b5ba90887a18f2f54

[one-eyed]

While Richmond is well and truly in finals survival mode, a loss to Port Adelaide will put a serious dent in its chances of jumping into the eight.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/812026/the-10-games-to-watch-crucial-clashes-that-will-shape-the-eight

----------------
                    Pts          R21                 R22                  R23

7. Carlton      48:    Bris (Gabba)    Melb (MCG)        Coll (MCG)

8. St Kilda     44:    Geel (KP)         Bris (Marvel)      Syd (Marvel)

9. Richmond  42:    Port (Adel)       Haw (MCG)        Ess (MCG)

10. Bulldogs  40:    Freo (Marvel)   GWS (Marvel)    Haw (Launceston)

[one-eyed]

AFL website's Top 8 predictions:

Sarah Olle & Callum Twomey:

Geelong       72
Melbourne    64
Sydney        64
Brisbane      64
Fremantle    62
Collingwood 60
Richmond    54
W.Bulldogs  52
------------------
Carlton        52

Riley Beveridge:

Geelong
Melbourne
Sydney
Brisbane
Fremantle
Collingwood
W.Bulldogs
Carlton

https://www.afl.com.au/video/812187/who-finishes-in-the-eight-after-round-23

[Damo]

Us making it at the expense of Carlton would be absolutely gold

[Andyy]

Us making it at the expense of Carlton would be absolutely gold

Very much so.

One of the few potential Schadenfreude items that would make me happy enough without winning the flag.

Also includes:
Geelong not winning the flag
Brisbane not winning the flag
Collingwood not winning the flag
Melbourne not winning the flag (less so than the above 3)

So yeah, kinda hoping that someone like Freo, Swans or Saints get up and win it despite my mild nausea.