Burgo's Take: It's tough from 0-4
By Matt Burgan
afl.com.au
April 23, 2007
HISTORY says Richmond and Melbourne will not win this year's premiership or even make the top four in 2007.
To put that in perspective, only the famed 1975 North Melbourne premiership team started the season with a 0-4 win/loss record before it etched its history-making status and won its first flag.
And since the top eight was introduced in 1994, no team has made the finals after dropping their opening four matches. When you consider the 2006 AFL finalists didn't lose any more than three in a row, it's a tougher climb than Everest.
In today's football environment, both Richmond and Melbourne will be under the pump from all sections, as they are the only two teams without victories after four rounds.
The simple reality is both teams have been struck by injury, which has severely hindered their structures and list management.
For Richmond, it could ill afford to have Nathan Brown and Mark Coughlan on the sidelines, while the unfairly maligned trio of Kent Kingsley, Ray Hall and Trent Knobel would have helped the Tigers' structure no end.
Granted, the Tigers have had opportunities to nail some victories early in the season, but it would have been interesting to see how a sprinkling of important players may have impacted on those results.
But having Kingsley up forward would ease the load on Matthew Richardson while having Knobel provide a chop-out for Troy Simmonds, who is only now returning from a limited pre-season due to an ankle injury, could also help their cause. Hall is also another tall option down back.
Richmond coach Terry Wallace has spoken publicly about his team's future prospects and although he has been lambasted by certain quarters, he is spot on.
Its past three NAB AFL Drafts have netted some promising talent, but many of them, such as Danny Meyer (2004), Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls (2005) and Shane Edwards (2006) need time.
Entering the season, Richmond's list had a look about it that pointed towards the future and not this year. All and sundry with the yellow and black needed to be aware of this, hence why Wallace spoke of the next decade with excitement.
If the club was to make an impact this year, it didn't need the likes of Brown and Coughlan going down. Not Richmond. Some lists are far better equipped to handle the loss of key players better. Unfortunately, the Tigers are not in this position.
Richmond and Melbourne's situation will place Wallace and Neale Daniher under unfair scrutiny. It's folly to think their coaching ability diminishes, simply because of the predicament they now find themselves in.
It's no surprise to see the Bombers flying up at this stage of the season. Unlike last year, Essendon, along with the Brisbane Lions, was riddled with injuries throughout their list.
Black clouds were predicted by many for the Bombers in 2007. Yet the good run with injury (so far), the return of key players, the introduction of some good new recruits and the continued development of several players have helped their cause.
All of a sudden, Kevin Sheedy is a genius again, which is hilarious when you consider last year's situation. He was always going to be up against it in 2006 and the loss of key personnel last year shouldn't have reduced his status entering this year.
The ‘doom and gloomers’ predicted it was his last year at the helm.
But now the Sheedy magic is back. And so is skipper Matthew Lloyd. Funny about that.
The loss of key cattle is the catalyst why Richmond and Melbourne are struggling – and like the majority of clubs, they cannot to have major alterations to their best structures.
Call it an excuse. Call it a reason. But call it fact.
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