Track-and-yield deal to compensate for lost players to Gold Coast * Mark Stevens
* From: Herald Sun
* April 28, 2010 THE recipe is as top secret as the Colonel's own.
We know there are herbs and spices - age, original draft position, salary rating, best-and-fairest results and All-Australian selections - but the weighting of each will remain a mystery.
That is why the formula to decide compensation for players lost to Gold Coast is open to howls of discontent from clubs that it is too subjective.
It is also open to rorting in the area of best-and-fairests.
What's to stop a club tinkering with its club champion award slightly to ensure a Gold Coast target finishes a spot or two higher?
It has happened before at clubs, when the incentive was not as great.
A top-five finish might be enough to boost a departing player's value from a second to a first-round pick.
But as the AFL reviews its formula, with an eye to compensating a club for the loss of a marquee star like Gary Ablett, it has a reputable alternative right under its nose.
For the first time, the AFL's official statistician Champion Data has attached a points value to every player in the league based on SuperCoach rankings, past and present form, experience and where they stack up against other rival players in similar positions on the ground.
It is the AFL's version of tennis's ATP points system and it could be the best way to decide compensation - without a whiff of subjectivity.
Every player in the competition now has a points ranking out of 30, with Champion Data providing an accurate list of where a player sits at each club.
It forms the basis of the Herald Sun Full Strength Indicator, which ranks the relative strength of each team each week, taking into account the value of absentees.
Using the system, every player ranked at a maximum 30 points could be classed as a "marquee" player worth two first-round picks.
Seven other players join Ablett in the elite 30-point class.
Ablett's teammate Joel Selwood, also a Gold Coast target, is worth 26 points - equal seventh at Geelong. Under the formula, he has paid the price for a slight dip in form this season.
Jared Brennan, the Lion linked to GC17, is worth 24 points - equal fourth at Brisbane.
Using guidelines to match the ratings, Geelong would receive a first-round pick in return for Selwood and the Lions would get a pick at the end of the first round for Brennan.
Bulldog Jarrod Harbrow, strongly linked to GC17, is worth 23 points (equal 10th at the club) and worthy of a second-round pick.
Campbell Brown is also worth 23 points (equal eighth at Hawthorn).
The ratings change week by week, fluctuating slightly on form.
By the end of the season, when compensation is dished out, they should be even more accurate.
Ken Wood, the salary cap cop, will oversee the workings of the AFL's secret recipe.
As if he hasn't got enough on his plate. Hand it over to the stats guys.
FORMULA EXPLAINED Players have been coded into position, which are made up by general defender, key defender, general forward, key forward, midfielder and ruck.
Players can be coded in more than one position, however, a primary position is assigned to each player. For the purposes of scoring players in each category, the primary position is used for players who fill more than one position.
As a result, like players are compared with each other and not across the entire competition. This is to ensure parity across a squad, rather than the midfielders being over scored due to their prevalence for ranking higher than other positions.
Five factors are used to make up a player’s strength rating. These factors are:- Form, Class, Experience, Versatility and Auto Selection. The score for each of these categories is totaled to obtain the overall strength score for the player.
The factors and how they are derived is described below.Form The Champion Data rankings are used to compile this factor which is a measure of the player’s recent performance.
Players are scored on the previous five rounds of the competition e.g. for round 6, 2010, rounds 1-5 will be the relevant period of games. Allowances are made for returning players. If a player has missed no games in the last 5, they get 100% of their average score, one game in the last 5 they get 80%, two games = 60%, 3 games = 40% and 4 games = 20%.
A player is measured against the other players for that position and his raw score is ranked into one of 10 groups. The players in the best form get a 10, down to a 1 for the players with poor form. Players with no games in the last 5, get a 0.
These ratings are dynamic and could change from week to week as the distribution of scores changes amongst a position.
ClassThis is a measure of the long term performance of a player. The rankings are used for the previous 22 games of a player, no matter how long it has taken to play those games.
Ranking is done by position type using the player’s average. A score is given between 1 and 10 with 10 being for players with the highest average ranking points over the 22 games and 1 the lowest. Players yet to debut are given 0.
Auto Select This is derived from a player’s history over the past 3 seasons (including the current one) and whether they played AFL, lower grade (e.g. VFL, QAFL), were injured or were suspended.
To be auto select a player must not have been dropped in a season. If they did play a lower grade, it must have been on return from injury and they must not play any more than 5 games in the seconds. A player is given a score of 1 for each season they have been ‘auto select’ up to a maximum of 3 points.
Versatility Players can fall into general and key defender, general and key forward, ruck and midfielder. The A player can score a maximum of 3 points here is they fill 3 positions, down to a 1 for players who fill one position. This factor is not as dynamic as form, class and experience but can be updated during the season as players fill different roles.
Experience The career games for a player are used to compare with other players in that position and a score of 1 to 5 is given, with 5 being the most experienced players and 1 the least experienced. A player who is yet to debut receives a 0 for experience
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/track-and-yield-deal-to-compensate-for-lost-players-to-gold-coast/story-e6frf9jf-1225859032447
