TIGERS’ FREE KICK WHINGE IS SIMPLY WRONGMax Laughton and Ben Waterworth
Fox Sports
May 24th, 2021If you’d listened to Twitter on Friday night, you would’ve thought Richmond was a free kick away from beating Brisbane.
Heck, if you’d listened to Damien Hardwick at halftime, you would’ve thought so too.
“Six to 21 free kicks mate, it’s pretty hard to win the ball when you’re either second to it or the count isn’t going our way,” the triple premiership coach told Channel 7.
He wasn’t wrong; the Tigers were behind in that stat. But he chose not to cite other statistics, such as Brisbane’s 37-19 inside 50s lead, or 21-11 clearance lead, or 83-57 contested possession lead.
The Lions went on to win quite comfortably, off the back of dominating the latter three categories. And Hardwick’s comments play into the great fallacy of footy: that the free kick count really matters.
In the book Footballistics, author James Coventry and his team analysed which statistics are most closely correlated with winning.
For example, between 2007 and 2017, the team that won the inside 50 count won the game 74.2 per cent of the time; if you’re winning the territory battle, you’re more likely to win the game.
What about free kicks? Well, the team that won the free kick count won the game 52.4 per cent of the time. That’s barely better than flipping a coin to tip a winner; even being the team that had more smothers (52.5 per cent) was more predictive.
So what does this tell us? Obviously free kicks - or non-free kicks - can be incredibly decisive. Just ask Melbourne fans. But overall it barely matters if you win or lose the free kick count; and there’s certainly nothing in the rules that says the count has to be even.
The funny thing is, Richmond has proven that better than anyone.
In their current dynastic era, the Tigers have always given away more free kicks than they’ve received. In 2017, 2018 and 2021 so far, they ranked 18th for free kick differential - the gap between the frees they received and the frees they gave away. They were 17th last year, and 13th in 2018.
Has that mattered? Obviously not. Richmond has won three flags in four years despite never getting ‘the rub of the green’ in the free kick count.
The common wisdom is that teams who are first to the ball win more free kicks, because they put themselves in positions to be awarded them. The Tigers aren’t the best contested ball team, and in recent years have prioritised winning the ball on turnover and applying manic pressure.
That manic pressure, and playing on the edge, means Richmond plays a risky style of footy. But the risks generally pay off, because if they don’t give away a free, they find themselves in an advantageous position.
We complain about free kicks because it’s an understandable emotional response. But for the most part, it’s just not rational.
Stop worrying about free kicks, Richmond fans. You too, Dimma.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-round-10-analysis-talking-points-reaction-top-stories-richmond-free-kicks-hugh-mccluggage-brownlow-finals-chances/news-story/de26a073a2a1389682b24b31f1c1152c
