Our Run Home: How many games will we win?

[Piping Shrike]

On tonight so far, 2 maybe. Declare it a gap year, sharpen the scalpels, and dive as far as possible. Can't flirt with form when you have none anyway.

[Tigeritis™©®]

Playing this bad I reckon we have the hardest draw now.

[Chuck17]

Year over

[Andyy]

Year over

Looks it yep.

Kissed top 4 goodbye last game.

Just about out of the top 8 now

[Diocletian]

Time to play the kids*....





*except Ryan

[Andyy]

Time to play the kids*....





*except Ryan

And Naish

[one-eyed]

Tigers may Bradbury their way into eighth: Run Home after Rd 15

Max Laughton
Foxsports
28 June 2021

8. RICHMOND (7-7, 101.5%)

Remaining games:

Round 16: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Round 17: Collingwood at MCG
Round 18: Brisbane at MCG
Round 19: Geelong at MCG
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG

Chance of playing finals from current record: 48%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 15th-hardest

Tigers fans should probably be buying up Hawks memberships just to thank them.

Hawthorn’s stunning upset of GWS totally makes up for Richmond’s shock loss to St Kilda, keeping the premiers inside the top eight and much more likely to play finals at all.

Of course, the Tigers aren’t just trying to make the eight. They want to win the whole shebang.

But their top four chances are pretty much gone; in the top eight era, no team has ever made the top four after being three wins out with eight games to play. And as we know, winning the flag from outside the top four is incredibly rare.

It’s likely to be a race to 12 wins if you want to finish eighth, and the Tigers are in the box seat, with a much easier draw than Fremantle - particularly given WA’s Covid situation that could see the Dockers’ upcoming home games moved east.

Round 22 against the Giants and Round 20 against the Dockers will still be crucial, but now if the Tigers just go 5-3, they should make the eight.

But can they win the flag? Jeez, we’re not brave enough to rule them out, but...



PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Melbourne (16.8 projected wins)
2. W.Bulldogs (16.4)
3. Brisbane     (15.35)
4. Geelong      (15.25)
5. Port Adelaide (14.6)
6. West Coast  (12.65)
7. Sydney       (12.25)
8. Richmond   (11.5)
--------------------------------
9. Fremantle (10.85)
10. GWS Giants (10.25)
11. Essendon (10.2)
12. St Kilda (9.1)
13. Carlton (8.9)
14. Adelaide (8.45)
15. Collingwood (7.55)
16. Gold Coast (6.7)
17. Hawthorn (6.6)
18. North Melb. (4.6)

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Melbourne vs Geelong Cats

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Port Adelaide vs Richmond

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): West Coast Eagles vs Sydney Swans

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-15-predicted-ladder-finals-top-eight-ladder-predictor-finals-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/6565374b12957d3a19f87d0c09373e16

[one-eyed]

Eighth better than a tracksuit for Tigers

Michael Gleeson
The Age
June 28, 2021

Taking the last spot in the eight is like being the last to qualify for the Olympics. It’s nice, it’s a relief, and you get to be part of the show but probably just means you go home with a tracksuit.

Of course, you hope for more than just a few weeks of rubbing shoulders with the best and the warm knowledge you were good enough to be there at the end, but most of the time you only end up winning a green and gold trackie.

With eight rounds to go, Richmond and Fremantle are now separated by percentage in eighth place. Sydney, a game ahead, should hold their place. They play only two sides above them in the run home but, unsettlingly, with games against Freo, Essendon, GWS and St Kilda to come, they play all four teams other than Richmond who are vying to climb into the eight.

Perhaps more than any other team the Swans will shape who joins them in seventh and eighth place. Sydney’s COVID lockdown, however, changes much about expectations and assumptions for the Swans. They are likely to be in a hub in Melbourne for most of the rest of the season, if not all of it, and their games will be thrown around. At a minimum they now almost certainly won’t play Fremantle in Sydney in what was already a finals-shaping game.

Richmond should be the eighth side. Despite their problems they are also the only side in contention for that final spot that is likely to do anything more than leave September with the proverbial tracksuit. They are highly unlikely to do a Kieren Perkins and come from nowhere but they cannot be discounted.

The Tigers don’t yet have a Hawthorn 2016-17 feel about them but they are approaching that point. They are not as tired as the Hawks in those ‘seasons too far’ but they are trying to work out how they can readjust on the run and keep the momentum during their ‘Dusty Window’.

Noah Balta’s injury is structurally as unsettling as any they could have suffered, especially when it is combined in the same (losing) game with Nathan Broad’s injury. Yes, David Astbury should return but the removal of the two versatile and attacking defenders in Balta and Broad will have a profound impact.

The Tigers have the softest run home of any of the final eight challengers with games against all of the current bottom four teams including Gold Coast, where the wheels have fallen right off, to help soften the blow of their list of injured.

If they win those four games as expected that gets them to 11 wins and in all likelihood that should be enough for eighth place, even allowing for probable losses against Geelong and Brisbane.

They must also play GWS and Freo in the run home.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/four-points-eighth-better-than-a-tracksuit-for-tigers-saints-honesty-session-harvey-s-tall-order-20210627-p584mp.html

[torch]

We might miss out of the eight!

Essendon’s fixture is easy.

If we drop 3 matches we finish 9th.

Must only lose 1-2.

[pmac21]

It is going to be very interesting how we react to the pressure this time around. 
Will say a lot to the resilience of this group. 
It will also say a lot about Hardwick and his coaching particularly around selection.  Does he go with tried and true players like Houli (who should be dropped) and Castagna or start playing some kids. 
Lynch & Nank can't come back quick enough just to have their big bodies out there.

[one-eyed]

Peter Sumich has us finishing sixth.

1. Western Bulldogs
2. Brisbane
3. Port Adelaide
4. Geelong
5. Melbourne

6. Richmond

“I’ve got Richmond finishing sixth. People wouldn’t want to be writing them off.

“They’re going to win at least six or seven out of the last eight games, I would think.”

7. West Coast
8. Sydney

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/06/30/west-coast-great-predicts-how-the-top-eight-will-finish-come-seasons-end/

[one-eyed]

Foxsports has us finishing Ninth.

-----------------------

AFL Run Home after Rd 16

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
July 4th, 2021 9:23 pm

9. RICHMOND (7-8, 100.6%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Collingwood at MCG
Round 18: Brisbane at MCG
Round 19: Geelong at MCG
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG

Chance of playing finals from current record: 21%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 13th-hardest

Two weeks ago we said Richmond had the easiest remaining fixture and should play finals because of it. Then they went and lost two of their easiest games left.

Clearly the Tigers still have the talent to recover, and if any of these teams competing for eighth does make the finals, they’ll be the most feared; but someone (GWS) finally took advantage of their back-to-back lapses and now they must find a way to recover.

It sure looks like 11 wins and a good percentage will be enough to play finals for the first time in a decade. We’d be shocked if a team missed with 12 wins.

So can they finish 4-3 or 5-2? They should be able to beat the Pies, Roos and Hawks. And they probably need to beat the Giants and Dockers just to make sure they finish above them - going 4-3 with a loss to GWS probably won’t work.

On their form across the entire season, the Tigers are good enough. But on their form over the last fortnight, who knows? They cannot afford another slip-up with tricky games against Brisbane and Geelong to come.

St Kilda. Gold Coast. That’s two strikes; three, and you’re out.

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.6 wins, finishing ninth


PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Western Bulldogs (16.65 projected wins)
2. Melbourne (16)
3. Brisbane Lions (15.75)
4. Geelong Cats (15.55)
5. Port Adelaide (15)
6. Sydney Swans (12.75)
7. West Coast Eagles (12.05)
8. GWS Giants (10.95)
-----------------------------
9. Richmond (10.6)
10. Fremantle (10.3)
11. Essendon (10)
12. Carlton (9.55)

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats
First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Port Adelaide vs GWS Giants
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs West Coast Eagles
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-16-analysis-predicted-ladder-top-eight-ladder-predictor-afl-finals-fixture/news-story/5aa6d34cbceb904800d8d08e46275b83

[Piping Shrike]

12th now, you would have to think that if the players really apply themselves to the task 14th should be a breeze, 15th eminently possible and 16th at a stretch.

[one-eyed]

Foxsports has us finishing 12th with 10 wins.

-------------------------------------

12. RICHMOND (7-9, 99.3%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Brisbane at MCG
Round 19: Geelong at MCG
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG

Chance of playing finals from current record: 3%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 13th-hardest

It’s still surprising every time we look over the numbers and realise Richmond probably isn’t making the eight. Imagine saying that even three weeks ago! It’s absurd! Richmond?!

But if you lose games against ninth, 14th and 15th with your season on the line, that’s what happens. Suddenly two games against Brisbane and Geelong that were supposed to be ‘well, if they win them maybe they can sneak into the top four’ are ‘they need to win one to play finals’.

There would be the slimmest of paths possible if the Tigers do drop to 7-11, because as we’ve written plenty of times now, 11 wins might be enough to make the eight. They would have to storm home, not just beating but thumping the Dockers, Kangaroos, Giants and Hawks, while hoping no-one else reaches 12 wins (or that GWS reaches 11).

However there has been no indication over the past month that Richmond is good enough to play finals. If you are tipping them to do so, you’re working on faith, and little else.

Fox Footy’s projection: 10 wins, finishing 12th (but as high as eighth on percentage)

------------------------------------

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

In order of projected wins, not adjusted for percentage

1. Melbourne (16.7 projected wins)
2. Western Bulldogs (15.95)
3. Geelong Cats (15.85)
4. Brisbane Lions (15)
5. Port Adelaide (14.5)
6. Sydney Swans (13.5)
7. West Coast Eagles (10.95)
8. Fremantle (10.8 )
--------------------------
9. St Kilda (10.5)
10. Essendon (10.35)
11. GWS Giants (10.25)
12. Richmond (10)
13. Carlton (9.1)
14. Gold Coast Suns (8 )
15. Collingwood (7.55)
16. Adelaide Crows (7.4)
17. Hawthorn (6.1)
18. North Melbourne (4.55)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-17-analysis-predicted-ladder-top-eight-afl-fixture-finals-ladder-predictor/news-story/b0e8b05d42b89694ea8d57bad33be1b2

[Andyy]

Honestly we should aim to finish 13th or lower. Get a top6 pick and a better fixture for 2022. Have 1 more roll of the dice and then commit to rebuild I guess.