Our Run Home: How many games will we win?

[WilliamPowell]

We won't win another game they way we are going

And that might be a good thing

We have incredibly strong draft hand

Time to use it, take advantage of it

[one-eyed]

With 3 rounds to go:

8. Fremantle    36    90.9  .............   Bris (H), WCE (H), StK (A)
------------------------------
9. GWS           34    95.1  .............  Geel (A), Rich (H?), Carl (A)

10. Essendon   32   102.7  .............  Dogs (A),  GC (A),   Coll (H)

11. Richmond  32    98.0  .............   NM (H), GWS (A?), Haw (H)

12. Carlton      32    94.1  .............. GC (H),  Port (A), GWS (H)

13. St Kilda     32    85.9  .............. Syd (A?), Geel (A), Freo (H)

[camboon]

We won’t win another game if we do what’s best for our club. Play the kids and see who is worth persevering with.
Finishing 9th will be pointless

[Francois Jackson]

We won’t win another game if we do what’s best for our club. Play the kids and see who is worth persevering with.
Finishing 9th will be pointless

i accept thats your opinion, but its the wrong one. You play to win.

i can accept if we fail whilst playing kids who give their all. What i dont accept is garbage like what we saw tonight esp from the likes of aarts, chol and guess who Ross.

I always give our flag heroes an out, but that doesnt apply to these 3 duds. That is what they are, and i hope all 3 FO to where they came from. In Aarts case i hope he never plays another game for us again. I saw enough of Ross when he was sulking in the stands as your club was about to win a flag.

Astbury well he has been good to us, and vice versa but he is done.

[camboon]

I didn’t say we don’t play to win, if we can’t win with our best side it will be harder to win with kids in.
This is an opportunity to play some of the kids to see what they have.

[Francois Jackson]

what kids mate?

MRJ should play absolutely, but our kids in the VFL are not going to give us a  better chance at winning.

Unfortunately what we have apart from 1 or 2 is the best we got which doesnt look good for the future, when you look at guys like Naish and Ross. I hope im wrong about Dow but he looks like another wasted pick.

[Diocletian]

Dow's probably-hopefully- just another slow burner like his brother...has definitely shown glimpses...

RCD, Ralphsmith , Cumberland the only other kids who look to have any AFL traits to me.....though MRJ's tackling alone is an upgrade on half the current senior side....other than the aforementioned I'd probably only persist with Biggie and Ryan and pee off the rest...

[Andyy]

what kids mate?

MRJ should play absolutely, but our kids in the VFL are not going to give us a  better chance at winning.

Unfortunately what we have apart from 1 or 2 is the best we got which doesnt look good for the future, when you look at guys like Naish and Ross. I hope im wrong about Dow but he looks like another wasted pick.

Personally I'd be playing anyone that I haven't seen enough of to put a line through yet.

Anybody in their 4th year or onwards and not getting near to senior selection should be gone. Anyone in their 3rd year should be played and we need to decide to keep or cut.

Unknown (for me) due to no evidence:
Miller


Undecided due to not enough sample:
CCJ

Cut:
Aarts
Astbury (finito)
Cotch (finito despite some good moments/games)
Houli
DES
Garth (despite cracking in with our KPDs out)
Naish
Ross

Keep:
Chol (depth only)
RCD
Ralph
Cumberland (too early)
Dow (too early)
Martyn (too early)
Biggie (too early)

[one-eyed]

11. Richmond --- 32 points (eight wins, 11 losses), 98.0 per cent

There has been a reluctance to write off the Tigers, despite six losses in their past seven games, but they are no longer in control of their finals chances. The back-to-back premiers need to win every game from here and hope 11 wins is enough to play finals, with their percentage a little healthier than some rivals for eighth spot. A rather soft run home awaits from here, with the round 21 match against Greater Western Sydney followed by clashes against North Melbourne and Hawthorn at the MCG. They won't be ruled out until it is mathematically impossible, but that point is getting dangerously close. - Nathan Schmook

https://www.afl.com.au/news/655316/the-run-home-swans-might-not-lose-again-blues-won-t-go-away

[one-eyed]

- West Coast is on 10 wins but not safe, with the Western Derby in Round 22 likely serving as a mini-final;

- Fremantle controls its destiny but has a tough next fortnight... importantly it’s a lot easier for them to get to 11 wins from here, since they’re the only side on nine;

- GWS, Essendon, Richmond and Carlton aren’t out of it, but need to win two of their next three at a bare minimum, while St Kilda probably has to go 3-0... but it’s crazy that these teams are still in the mix given their records in the first place.

11. RICHMOND (8-11, 98%)

Remaining games

Round 21: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 22: GWS at Giants Stadium*
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG

Chance of playing finals from current record: 0% (reminder: on historic results only)

Remaining fixture difficulty: 17th-hardest

It’s absurd that an 8-11 team that has lost six of its last seven games can still play finals... but Richmond can.

But they have to start actually, you know, winning. On paper they should beat the Kangaroos and Hawks - though if you watched all three teams on the weekend you might not think so - and the Giants game is close to a 50-50.

Look at all the teams around them. They’re all flawed and/or have tricky draws. If the Tigers just go 3-0 from here, they’re still a pretty good chance of playing finals.

Fox Footy’s projection: 9.8 wins, finishing ninth

------------------------------------------------------------------

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

In order of projected wins only

1. Western Bulldogs (17 projected wins)
2. Geelong Cats (17)
3. Melbourne (16.25)
4. Port Adelaide (15.75)
5. Sydney Swans (14.85)
6. Brisbane Lions (13.95)
7. West Coast Eagles (11.2)
8. Fremantle (10.4)
--------------------------
9. Richmond (9.
10. GWS Giants (9.
11. Carlton (9.7)
12. Essendon (9.55)
13. St Kilda (9.25)
14. Collingwood (7.3)
15. Gold Coast Suns (7.2)
16. Adelaide Crows (6.95)
17. Hawthorn (6.5)
18. North Melbourne (5.85)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-the-run-home-after-round-20-afl-analysis-predicted-final-ladder-top-eight-finals-fixture-ladder-predictor/news-story/c90c6c1d860db5d01227bab39a3123c3

[FooffooValve]

Right now, we're the worst team in the comp. Will need a dramatic improvement if we are to go 3-0 from here.

[one-eyed]

Six clubs have three weeks to scramble for one finals spot. This is the bold verdict on who makes it

Ben Cotton
Fox Sports
August 3rd, 2021

The race towards finals is heating up with just three rounds remaining in one of the most open AFL seasons in recent memory and eighth position well and truly up for grabs.

Several teams have rotated through the last spot in the top eight all season. Now six clubs remain in contention to claim it: Fremantle, GWS, Essendon, Richmond, Carlton and St Kilda.

All of those teams featured in Saints great Leigh Montagna’s ‘seven seducers’ on Fox Footy’s First Crack's teams that keep “sucking us in” and “letting us down”.

At times, it’s felt like these sides haven’t wanted to feature in September, failing to take their opportunities to either claim or a cement a spot in the top eight when they’ve come.

But it’s made for a thrilling run home as fans will be treated to mini US-sports style ‘wildcard’ stretch to determine the last spot in the top eight.

Asked which team would claim the final spot, triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown told Fox Footy’s On The Couch: “I think Richmond will. I think they win those three games (against the Kangaroos, Giants and Hawks).”

On the Tigers, St Kilda legend Nick Riewoldt added: “Call it blind faith, but their turnover game is still really strong. It’s the one thing that’s stood them in great stead and it hasn’t abandoned them. Over the next three weeks, they’ll get all of Vlastuin, McIntosh, Houli and Broad back and maybe Balta.”

Foxfooty.com.au has ranked the prospects of the six clubs battling it out for eighth position and assesses who really deserves it.

1. RICHMOND (11th, 97%)
As disappointing as they’ve been in recent weeks, it’s hard to go past backing the reigning premiers as the most deserving team to finish eighth. This is a club that not long ago was still considered one of the premiership favourites, but the wheels have since fallen off and fallen off badly. Injuries to several stars including Dustin Martin, Noah Balta, Nathan Broad, Bachar Houli, Nick Vlastuin and other key players throughout stages have been significant blows, while they appear to have lacked the same hunger and intensity from recent seasons. Working in their favour is a favourable run home where they play North Melbourne (home), GWS (away) and Hawthorn (home).

2. GWS GIANTS (9th, 95.1%)
3. ESSENDON (10th, 102.7%)
4. FREMANTLE (8th, 90.9%)
5. CARLTON (12th, 94.1%)
6. ST KILDA (13th, 85.9%)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/richmond-tigers/afl-news-2021-ranking-the-six-clubs-competing-for-eighth-spot-finalists-who-is-going-to-make-the-top-eight-chances-september/news-story/debbb48eeba2599591ed96230ddae36d

[Damo]

West Coast are far from safe

[one-eyed]

Two into seven? McGuane rates every finals contender

Seven clubs are vying for two finals spots. Footy analyst Mick McGuane examines each team, names the players who need to lift and declares who’s best placed to snare a top eight spot.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/mick-mcguanes-ultimate-deep-dive-into-the-seven-clubs-all-pushing-to-play-finals/news-story/3b0b50f1803a2f32a4b701e28263f420

[one-eyed]

Midway Round 21:

8. GWS           38    96.4  .............                Rich (H?), Carl (A)
------------------------------
9. Richmond    36  100.1  .............               GWS (A?), Haw (H)

10. Fremantle  36    90.9  .............   Bris (H), WCE (H), StK (A)

11. St Kilda     36    88.2  ..............                Geel (A), Freo (H)

12. Essendon   32   102.7  .............  Dogs (A), GC (A?), Coll (H)

13. Carlton      32     93.3