The AFL site is tipping us to win by 18 pts...
Preview: Richmond v MelbourneBy Paul Daffey and Peter Ryan
afl.com.au
Tue 10 Apr, 2012WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Saturday, April 14, 1.45pm
LAST TIME: Melbourne 17.16 (118) d Richmond 13.13 (91), round 14, 2011, at the MCG [Ed: We last played the Dees in round 22 last year
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MATCH SUMMARYHow things change. Last year's round 14 clash between these teams was billed as a clash of the up-and-comers. And it was a beauty, with Melbourne winning by 27 points. Both teams go into this match without a win this season, but the circumstances differ markedly. Richmond remains a team on the rise after spirited losses to premiership candidates Carlton and Collingwood, while Melbourne is a wooden-spoon candidate after off-field upheavals and whippings from the Brisbane Lions and West Coast.
THE FOUR POINTS
Richmond1. The experienced Collingwood midfield had only seven more clearances during its 21-point victory over Richmond last Saturday, but it had six centre clearances to one during their third-quarter blitz that won them the game. If the Richmond midfield concentrates, it should be too good for its Demons opponents.
2. Dustin Martin was tipped as an All Australian possibility and Brownlow Medal chance after his barnstorming pre-season, but his form has tapered since then. He had a brief purple patch but was otherwise quiet against Carlton, and he had only 21 disposals against Collingwood. Negating defender Dylan Grimes had 20.
3. It's likely to be a weekly point of interest to see just how the Tigers score with Jack Riewoldt playing more upfield. The idea is to create more avenues to goal, which is a requirement of top teams. That's all fine, but Richmond needs a strong presence from a fellow tall forward in the goal square while Riewoldt upfield.
4. Last year's match in round 14 was built up as a battle between two up-and-coming teams. Melbourne won by 27 points in a duel that did nothing to dampen expectations that both teams would push towards the finals in coming years. It's all changed now. Richmond is tipped to continue its rise while the Demons are tipped as wooden spooners.
Melbourne1. It's hard to gauge Melbourne's performance against the Eagles except that it was an improvement on week one. West Coast opened up Melbourne in the middle midway through the third quarter just as the Demons were wilting in the heat and the ball just kept going forward. The defence held up reasonably well when you consider the Eagles recorded 77 inside 50s.
2. Mitch Clark was excellent, kicking five of the Demons' nine goals. He competed hard when the ball was at ground level and showed he is a smart player. Clark will be an asset for Melbourne as a leader and a competitor.
3. Melbourne's back half has stood up under all sorts of pressure in the past three seasons. James Frawley, Jack Grimes and Colin Garland are quality young defenders and Jared Rivers was very good early last week. Clint Bartram's effort is hard to question and Tom McDonald adds some versatility. If they can create some run against Richmond this week the Demons might turn the corner.
4. James Magner has been Melbourne's best in the first two games and Jack Watts is showing positive signs. Nathan Jones has not put a foot wrong and the club's young leaders are doing and saying all the right things. In the clamour to criticise Melbourne some of the subtle improvements, particularly their competitiveness in the contested ball count, have been lost.
AFL.com.au prediction: Richmond by 18 points
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/132715/default.aspx
