Chris Yarran [merged]

[one-eyed]

Numbers don't add up on trading Chris Yarran

  Liam Mannix
     The Age
    October 21, 2015 - 3:53PM

Carlton have a 10.8 per cent chance of drafting a player as good as Chris Yarran even if they manage to trade him for a first-round pick.

While the Blues and Tigers haggle over his value, the reality is this: Carlton are unlikely to be able to draft a player of Yarran's ability with a first-round pick. And  if he is traded for a second-rounder, Carlton's chances of getting fair replacement value seem to be falling even further.

What is Chris Yarran worth?

Two measures available in evaluating an established player are games played and Brownlow Medal votes accrued.

Yarran is 24. He'll be 25 when next season starts. He's played 118 games in seven seasons with Carlton, only once playing 22 games or more. In that time he's accrued 10 Brownlow votes and kicked 90 goals.

If Yarran can maintain this consistency – and many would argue his career has been blighted with inconsistency – to 30, he will likely play at least another 100 games and earn at least another 10 Brownlow votes.
 
What is a draft pick worth?

If Yarran is worth 100 games and 10 Brownlow votes, what are the odds of drafting a player who can better that?

Extremely low.

Between 1994 and 2008, only 32.69 per cent of first-round draft picks played more than 100 games.

Games played is a decent marker of the success and value of an AFL player, but it has some flaws. First, AFL clubs have to give their players games.

At poor clubs, poor players will still play a high number of games.

A better marker is Brownlow votes.  How good is Yarran's tally of 10 Brownlow votes from 118 games?

Between 1994 and 2008, 56.81 per cent of all players drafted did not accrue a Brownlow vote. Another 17.33 per cent got between one and five.

Of players drafted in the first round, 65.83 per cent earn fewer than 10 votes in their career. Of players drafted in the second round, that number rises to 76.26 per cent.

Chris Yarran: Worth more than you think

The odds of Carlton drafting a player of Yarran's calibre with a first-round pick is very low: a roughly 30 per cent chance of playing 100 games, a roughly 30 per cent chance of earning 10 Brownlow votes.

The probability of drafting a player with both those characteristics with a first-round pick? 10.8 per cent.

Why we overvalue draft picks

The AFL community has grown to place a high value on draft picks because they represent potential rather than realised talent.

Every first-round draft pick is a potential Chris Judd – which is true, but this ignores the chances of drafting him are exactly 0.36 per cent.

HOW DRAFTED PLAYERS FARE

0 games

1st round: 6.47%

2nd round: 15.62%

3rd round: 19.42%

51+ games

1st round: 71.92%

2nd round: 52.97%

3rd round: 44.54%

101+ games

1st round: 50.38%

2nd round: 30.94%

3rd round: 28.38%

151+ games

1st round: 37.39%

2nd round: 19.5%

3rd round: 13.97%

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-trade-period-2015-numbers-dont-add-up-on-trading-chris-yarran-20151013-gk7u0r.html

[(•))(©™]

As an argument, it's a crock of poo

[one-eyed]

Silvagni On Chris Yarran:

"We've made it really clear to Richmond an end of first-round pick wouldn't get it done. They've got pick 12, I've spoken to Richmond this afternoon ... we're open to try and get this deal done. Hawthorn (with pick 15) asked about him some time ago, if he doesn't get to the Tigers he'll be playing with the Carlton Football Club."

.@barrettdamian: "Hawthorn have pick 15, have they asked about Yarran?" Silvagni: "Ahhhh, not recently."

Silvagni re Yarran: We spoke to Richmond this arvo and we're still working thru it. Our eyes are set on pick 12

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-21/trade-period-live-two-days-to-go
https://twitter.com/traderadio

[Owl]

As an argument, it's a crock of poo

agreed, total horsepoo.  He had to scrape the bottom of the barrel to find some sort of positive data lol  All other stats say he was a stuffing failure all year in a failure of a club that has folded up and gone into a rebuild....  What sort of jedi mind trick is this idiot trying to pull on us?

[Eat_em_Alive]

Silvagni On Chris Yarran:

"We've made it really clear to Richmond an end of first-round pick wouldn't get it done. They've got pick 12, I've spoken to Richmond this afternoon ... we're open to try and get this deal done. Hawthorn (with pick 15) asked about him some time ago, if he doesn't get to the Tigers he'll be playing with the Carlton Football Club."

.@barrettdamian: "Hawthorn have pick 15, have they asked about Yarran?" Silvagni: "Ahhhh, not recently."

Silvagni re Yarran: We spoke to Richmond this arvo and we're still working thru it. Our eyes are set on pick 12

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-21/trade-period-live-two-days-to-go
https://twitter.com/traderadio

MY EYES ARE SET ON GO stuff YOURSELF BLUES, YOUR NOT NOT TOUCHING stuffing PICK 12 YOU stuffing CHEATING MAGGOT SCUM

[(•))(©™]

As an argument, it's a crock of poo

agreed, total horsepoo.  He had to scrape the bottom of the barrel to find some sort of positive data lol  All other stats say he was a stuffing failure all year in a failure of a club that has folded up and gone into a rebuild....  What sort of jedi mind trick is this idiot trying to pull on us?

You're only as good as your last season.....or match....

[yandb]

Liam Mannix wrote a terrible article, his facts are based on drafting from 20 years ago to 2008 when it was mainly hit and miss.

Why not pick stats from 2006 to 2013 but he probably knows that they will make a mess of his article so lets exclude them.

[WA Tiger]

If the RFC give that stuffing pick 12 up, I'm done with them. Seriously we will be laughed at more so than the Tambling fiasco.

[tony_montana]

Won't happen

[Damo]

If the RFC give that stuffing pick 12 up, I'm done with them. Seriously we will be laughed at more so than the Tambling fiasco.

You were done with them if they named Morris again. They proceeded to name him specifically to try and achieve the bigger picture goal of seeing you fire up.

Now you threaten it for the 17th time.

Goodbye pick 12

[Penelope]

Liam Mannix wrote a terrible article, his facts are based on drafting from 20 years ago to 2008 when it was mainly hit and miss.

Why not pick stats from 2006 to 2013 but he probably knows that they will make a mess of his article so lets exclude them.

well he actually went to 2008.

but why not use players stats from 2008?
well he used one benchmark of 100 games.

how many players drafted from 2008 would have reached 100 games?

the later you go, the worse the figures will be. it is impossible for kids drafted from 2012 and 2013 to have played 100 games.

to do so from 2011 would require them having played nearly every game since being drafted.

what he has done wrong is overrate Yarran.

and break down the groups into fluid size numbers. eg due to priority picks etc pick 20 could be first round one year and second round the next.

It is also too broad of a spread, particulrily for the sub 20 picks.

picks 1-10 go at about 60%

if you took a spread of say picks 10-14, you would get a better idea of the worth of pick 12, but as you approach 20 the success rate drops off a fair bit.

He is correct in that draft picks are overarted, i do think it is a long stretch to use the methodoly he has to gauge the worth of yarran.

anyone watching the game would see his last year has been crap. He has known flaws in his game, and suspected flaws in his persona. Stats dont tell you this.

[one-eyed]

Blues won't budge on Yarran to Tigers deal

Nathan Schmook and Dinny Navaratnam 
afl.com.au
October 21, 2015 5:43 PM


CARLTON and Richmond are preparing to hold talks over Chris Yarran on Wednesday afternoon, with the Blues confident he wouldn't sit out of football for 12 months if a deal couldn't be done to send him to Punt Road.

There were suggestions on Wednesday that Yarran would not honour the last year of his contract if he were not traded to the Tigers, eventually moving to the club as a free agent ahead of the 2017 season.

Carlton list manager Stephen Silvagni, who said he had not spoken to Yarran recently, said he hoped a deal could be done to fulfil the 24-year-old's request as soon as this afternoon.

However, the club was firm on its request for a first-round pick from Richmond, having knocked back the Tigers' offer of pick No.19 on Tuesday afternoon.     

He said it needed to be understood that Yarran was contracted to Carlton for 2016 and "if we can't broker a deal then he's a required player … I wouldn't have thought he wouldn't play".

Silvagni later told NAB AFL Trade Radio that the Blues would be open to a package deal including pick 19 for Yarran.

"Our eyes are set on pick 12 but we're open to suggestions. Having said that, Chris is a contracted player," he said.

"I've spoken to Richmond this afternoon and they're still working through a few things and hopefully we can come to a solution.

"I think we made it really clear to Richmond some time ago that an end of first round pick wouldn’t get it done and they were well aware of that."

Silvagni ruled out the possibility of Yarran joining Hawthorn for 2016.

"They had some interest in him some time ago but his eyes are set on joining the Tigers and if he doesn't join the Tigers I would suggest that he’d be playing with Carlton."

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-21/blues-wont-budge-on-yarran-to-tigers-deal

[MintOnLamb]

Liam Mannix wrote a terrible article, his facts are based on drafting from 20 years ago to 2008 when it was mainly hit and miss.

Why not pick stats from 2006 to 2013 but he probably knows that they will make a mess of his article so lets exclude them.

well he actually went to 2008.

but why not use players stats from 2008?
well he used one benchmark of 100 games.

how many players drafted from 2008 would have reached 100 games?

the later you go, the worse the figures will be. it is impossible for kids drafted from 2012 and 2013 to have played 100 games.

to do so from 2011 would require them having played nearly every game since being drafted.

what he has done wrong is overrate Yarran.

and break down the groups into fluid size numbers. eg due to priority picks etc pick 20 could be first round one year and second round the next.

It is also too broad of a spread, particulrily for the sub 20 picks.

picks 1-10 go at about 60%

if you took a spread of say picks 10-14, you would get a better idea of the worth of pick 12, but as you approach 20 the success rate drops off a fair bit.

He is correct in that draft picks are overarted, i do think it is a long stretch to use the methodoly he has to gauge the worth of yarran.

anyone watching the game would see his last year has been crap. He has known flaws in his game, and suspected flaws in his persona. Stats dont tell you this.

"anyone watching the game would see his last year has been crap. He has known flaws in his game, and suspected flaws in his persona. Stats dont tell you this."


and suspected flaws in his persona....must have or else why did he request a trade to RFC??

[Dougeytherichmondfan]

I get the feeling we'll be going to the draft with 12 & 19. Cannot understand Carlton's logic on this one, a big whatever from me though. Id like Yarran at the tigers but happy with pick 19.

Well played tigers for mine!

[Petey]

Torch big boy, are the caps really necessary