AFL Draft 2019

[Diocletian]

As I said, thanks the BEllis gyp, we probably need to be realistic and just try to get another pick in the 20's...the general consensus seems to be that after Rowell, Anderson, Greene, Kemp and maybe one two others, you can pretty much chuck a blanket over the rest of the top 30...

[mightytiges]

What advantage do Hawthorn and North get in those scenarios? Why would they agree to swap?

The North one is less realistic as I said but the Hawthorn one was actually mentioned by a Hawk supporter on their forum. With Finn Maguiness as their father-son, they would be interested in having a bunch of 3 picks around 40 like we currently have. They would end up with picks 11, 39, 41, 42, 63 after such a swap. With picks 11 + 63 including the 20% discount they effective have points equivalent to pick 5 which should cover any bid on Maguiness if it comes. That swap then enables them to draft another 3 kids inside the top 42 (early 3rd round) of an even midrange draft.

But a club has to use their picks in order to match a bid. Or at least that is what I think. So they would need to use up all of pick 11 point value then use pick 39.

A bid at #5 has value of 1878 and Hawthorn have to match 80% of that or 1502. Pick 11 has 1329 points so it loses all of its value and drops to last spot in the order. Hawthorn then have to find 173 points from their next pick, which would be #39. Value of 39 is 446 less the 173 leaves 273 points on that pick and therefore the 39 drops down the order and slots in at pick #50

if they keep pick 30 then the 173 points off pick 30 value of 629 leaves 456 and then pick 30 drops down to slot in at pick 39. So Hawthorn do not need to trade at all. They already cover a pick 5 bid and they gain every pick the player drops down the order.

You're right about the order ( me <- doh! ).

Even so, Hawthorn don't lose from that swap. It's a couple spots either way here and there.
Under the first scenario (swap), they would be left with Maguiness then picks 41, 42, 50, 63.
Under the second scenario (no swap), they would have Maguiness then picks 39, 42, 54, 63.
The swap is a fair one as denoted by the points being fairly even.

If we offered them 38 & 39 instead for 30 & 54 (worse points wise for us) then they would be in front as effectively their pick 54 would move up the draft to 49 while everything else remains the same.
Under the first scenario (swap), they would be left with Maguiness then picks 39, 42, 49, 63.
Under the second scenario (no swap), they would have Maguiness then picks 39, 42, 54, 63.
If we swapped 38 & 39 then we'd be left with picks 19, 30, 41, 54, 56, ...

[Gracie]

That can work. The key would be where Hawthorn expects a bid to come. Under 11 they don't need to trade really

[one-eyed]

An article on one of the kids we've been linked to: Trent Rivers.


Class of 2019: Why this top-30 prospect spent his pre-season on the couch

AFL.com.au
Callum Twomey
Nov 6, 2019


Trent Rivers in action during the 2km time trial at the 2019 NAB AFL Draft Combine. All pictures: AFL Photos.

A PRE-SEASON spent on the couch watching the cricket and barely eating forced Trent Rivers to reassess his aims for his draft campaign.

But after winning under-18 All Australian honours for his performances for Western Australia, and then finishing the season in excellent form for East Fremantle, Rivers shapes as a possible top-30 draft choice this month.

That seemed a long way off when Rivers was bedridden over summer, as the teenager dealt with a serious case of glandular fever and tonsillitis.

It left Rivers, an attacking and powerful defender who can play in the midfield as a bigger body, with little time to prepare for his crunch under-18 season.

"I was diagnosed in very late December and I was only walking laps in late February. I started running and doing full training at the start of March, and I was playing my first scratch match in the middle of March," he told AFL.com.au.

"I didn't even think I was going to be playing footy until round five, but I played in round one and started with a good game."

As his West Australian teammates gathered for training camps over the pre-season, Rivers was stuck inside at home, getting more concerned by the day that his chance to impress clubs was fading.

"I did think that, but I had a really good group of doctors around me and they were holding me back and making sure I was taking it step by step and doing it in the correct procedure," he said.

"I wasn't able to play footy and I wasn't able to participate in the camps we had in the December and January period, so I was a bit worried about what recruiters would look at and see. I think they'd all understand that it was pretty serious."

Rivers wasted no time upon return from illness, gathering 26 disposals in the East Fremantle colts' round one clash with Claremont.

The 188cm prospect continued at the same pace before being a standout for his state at the national carnival, averaging 22 disposals at 77 per cent efficiency in a long-kicking, dashing role in defence.

Rivers works hard to penetrate with his run and disposal, and has also been used at stages in the midfield, where he sees himself potentially playing in the future if he can improve his endurance.

That's where he played late in East Fremantle's end to its under-18 season, including in the final round, when he picked up 30 touches and kicked two goals in a best-afield display.

Rivers knows the likelihood lies with his name being called by a club outside of Western Australia, but is prepared for that transition.

"It's been pretty exciting talking to [all the clubs] and getting an insight into how they see me as a footballer and as a person," he said.

"Being only two clubs in WA if you're going to set yourself to be in this position you’ve got to get used to the thought of not being at home and being at home in Queensland or Victoria or wherever it may be. I've got my head around that. I am going to see where it takes me."

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-11-06/class-of-2019-trent-rivers

[one-eyed]

Callum Twomey and Riley Beveridge from their latest draft podcast:

Link here: [go to 31:30 mark]: https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-11-06/listen-what-will-the-cats-do-at-the-draft-plus-inside-the-tim-kelly-trade

Twitter Question: What key forward will Richmond take at pick 19?

* Not a lot of key forwards out there (in this draft).

* Worrall not a key forward. Himself and the recruiters see him as a key back.

* Harrison Jones is one (Calder Cannons/Vic Metro, 25/2/2001, 196cm, 78kg).

* Believes we won't necessarily pick a key forward or tall at 19 as we're pretty well covered for talls with CCJ, Balta & Lynch.

* If we're desperate for one then Emerson Jeka could be a later selection. A bit of a mystery where he will go in the draft. Some clubs are fans (Western Jets/Vic Metro, 18/9/2001, 197cm, 89kg).

* Cooper Stephens maybe around 19 (midfielder, Vic Country/Geelong Falcons, 17/1/01, 188cm, 83kg).

* Hugo Ralphsmith has been linked to Richmond (midfielder, Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro, 9/11/01, 188cm, 75kg).

* Will Day also likely to be around that pick (half back, South Australia/West Adelaide, 5/6/01, 189cm, 76kg).

[Rampsation]

Taylor has a lot of X factor.......

Elijah Taylor had been well liked by our recruiters for months. I can see him being our first pick.

[one-eyed]

Get set for draft night drama: Why clubs are holding fire on pick swaps.

... we are unlikely to see clubs doing major pick swaps before the draft starts on November 27, because some will want to wait and know for certain where a bid has come for Academy or father-son choices before committing to a deal.

Clubs are expected to have 'in case of emergency' deals ready to go, though, as would likely be the case in this hypothetical.

However, some clubs are reluctant to do deals on the night, saying they would prefer to have their trades already done before the draft and to not have to make the calls during the helter-skelter nature of the event.

The bid situation has other clubs watching on with interest. Like Gold Coast, others such as Brisbane (picks 16 and 21) and Geelong (picks 14 and 17) are looking to move up the table by packaging selections.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-11-07/get-set-for-draft-night-drama-why-clubs-are-holding-fire-on-pick-swaps

We would be another one of those clubs watching on with interest if the AFL didn't screw us over on the Ellis compo  .

[one-eyed]

From Foxsports' Live AFL Draft chat with Matt Balmer today:

Q. Who do you think Richmond will look at with its first pick ?
A. Pick 19 isn't really an easy one. Guys like Miles Bergman, Will Day and Trent Rivers could suit. I reckon they'll look for a wingman/half back with some speed.

Q. Who do you think Richmond may be targeting at pick 20? Thanks 😀
A. Trent Rivers and Hugo Ralphsmith would be two I think they might look at

Q. Will Richmond look to bundle their numerous picks around Pick 40 to try and trade up the draft?
A. I don't think they will look to be too creative. Pickett and Stack show they don't need to get up the draft to pull in stars!

Q. Matt, How deep is this draft?  Around about what pick/s does it open up to be a needs basis? How does it compare to 2018/2017/
A. No draft class will get close to the superdraft 2.0 in 2018. I think the first round is similar to 2017 in some ways. I reckon after about Pick 30 it really opens up. Some clubs think there's a group of 8-9 then a drop.

Q. Matt, How deep is the draft? At around what pick does it become a needs basis or a lottery?
A. I'd say after Pick 30. There will be plenty of hits and misses after that.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-draft-2019-live-chat-draft-order-top-draft-prospects-matt-rowell-luke-jackson-hayden-young/news-story/5294290e0f34919b0f46ab1809fca840

[Diocletian]

Club really should've gone harder at the AFL over the BEliis compo farce publicly and also singled out that agenda-driven piece of shyte flog Barrett with his conflict of interest as an AFL employee ...club should blackball the scumbag...

[Diocletian]

Here's Will Day -one the kids tipped to go at our first:



Impressive piece of play but he still reminds me of Menadud & Fiora, who both used to do stuff like that in juniors as well...

[Knighter]

That’s 

2 seconds of vision and he is already a dud!

[The Machine]

Here's Will Day -one the kids tipped to go at our first:



Impressive piece of play but he still reminds me of Menadud & Fiora, who both used to do stuff like that in juniors as well...

Similar move to that magical moment when Pickett spun in the middle of the G does Pickett remind you of those players

[pmac21]

Read we were linked to Jeremy Sharp at some point.  Love the look of Devon Robertson but will be gone at our pick

[Diocletian]

That’s 

2 seconds of vision and he is already a dud!

Pretty clear I wasn't judging him on that vision... (hint: keywords were "impressive" and "still")...

Similar move to that magical moment when Pickett spun in the middle of the G does Pickett remind you of those players

Yeah almost identical and of course that was all Pickett did in the GF and of course the AFL GF is just like junior footy...and of course I must also comparing them both to the likes of Conca as well......

[Diocletian]

Read we were linked to Jeremy Sharp at some point.  Love the look of Devon Robertson but will be gone at our pick

Heard it's out of Rivers, Day, De Koning, Stephens, Sharp, Taylor & Pickett in pretty much that order....

Not sure we'll take De Koning now...also heard that people expecting us to prioritise our KPD depth in the draft might be a tad disappointed....hope it's wrong..