Richmond vs Geelong @ the 'Gabba --- 2020 Grand Final

[mightytiges]

Hey Mightytiges

Nankervis played against Geelong in Round 17.

It will be Broad who is new from that game

Cheers Gracie  .

My post above fixed.

[mightytiges]

Showers threaten AFL grand final

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/showers-threaten-afl-grand-final-20201021-p5676x.html

If there's any rain it would aid us. Make it harder for Geelong to play their kick & mark possession game.

[lamington]

If both Dangerfield and Ablett were forward, does grimes go to Dangerfield and broad onto Ablett?

[one-eyed]

The five grand factors:

AFL.com.au looks at the five biggest factors to consider ahead of the Grand Final

By Riley Beveridge
afl.com.au
22 October 2020

WHERE will Saturday night's Grand Final be won and lost?

And how do both Richmond and Geelong gain a crucial advantage?

AFL.com.au looks at the five biggest factors to consider ahead of the Grand Final.

WILL DUSTY BECOME THE GREATEST EVER FINALS PLAYER?

Dustin Martin is perhaps one Grand Final away from being considered the game's greatest ever finals player. The Richmond superstar is gunning to become the first ever three-time Norm Smith medallist, while he could also add a third premiership to his incredible list of accolades on Saturday night. Remarkably, in his 11 finals since the start of 2017, Martin averages 22.5 disposals, 4.4 clearances, 12.9 contested possessions and 8.8 score involvements per game. From those 11 finals, the brilliant Tiger has also kicked 21 goals himself and provided a further 15 goal assists. It's rare air, a record that few players – including fellow dual Norm Smith Medal winners like Gary Ayres, Andrew McLeod and Luke Hodge – have managed. Champion Data also notes that Martin's average of 20.1 AFL Player Ratings points throughout those 11 finals matches are significantly more than any other player in the same period (Luke Shuey's average of 17.0 from eight matches is the second-most of any player with more than one final). Adelaide couldn't counter Martin in 2017, and Greater Western Sydney failed to get close in 2019. Can Geelong in 2020? Cam Guthrie could be his direct match-up through the middle, while Jake Kolodjashnij has been earmarked as a potential opponent should Martin go forward.

WHERE DO YOU PLAY DANGER?

Forward or midfield? It's the conundrum that has grown in significance over the last five matches, where Geelong superstar Patrick Dangerfield has pushed forward successfully to average two goals per game. However, perhaps an even more pertinent question on Saturday night might be – can Richmond take the option away from Geelong coach Chris Scott? Dangerfield's forward splits throughout the finals series have been relatively simple. Against Port Adelaide, where the Cats trailed for much of the game, Scott smashed the 'break glass in case of emergency' sign and Dangerfield spent 67 percent of his time in the midfield. Against both Collingwood and Brisbane, where Geelong built steady leads from the outset, Scott was able to use Dangerfield more sparingly through the midfield. In those two games, Champion Data notes that he spent just 14 percent and nine percent of his time in the middle respectively. Able to have an impact in both areas of the game, Geelong is likely to continue being flexible with where Dangerfield plays on Saturday night. If the Cats lead early, expect him in attack. If the Tigers make a hot start, expect him in the middle.

HOW DO YOU COUNTER TOMAHAWK'S RUCK THREAT?

Tom Hawkins is a genuinely good forward 50 ruckman. A feature of last Saturday night's preliminary final victory over Brisbane was his ability to physically beat Oscar McInerney at stoppages, but it was not a one-off. Remarkably, Champion Data notes that Hawkins has won first-possession at forward 50 stoppages a total of 32 times this season. It doubles that of Marcus Bontempelli, who ranks second in that particular category with just 16. Hawkins uses his size to win front position, then frequently takes possession rather than trying to tap to a teammate. Although he won 11 hitouts (with three to advantage) in the preliminary final, it was his ability to cleanly grab the footy and gain more territory – or even the occasional shot on goal – that was the most dangerous aspect of his time in the ruck. It's just another threat that the Coleman Medal winner poses in the Geelong forward line. It will be intriguing to see whether Richmond uses athletic 194cm youngster Noah Balta – likely to be his defensive match-up for the game – in the ruck against Hawkins as well.

CATS MUST BRING THE BALL TO GROUND

This is a non-negotiable. Regardless of who is the target inside 50, whether it's Tom Hawkins, Patrick Dangerfield or Gary Rohan, they must make a contest. Richmond is among the best transition teams in the competition, and it starts from the intercept work of its defenders. Champion Data notes that the Tigers average 14.7 intercept marks and 64.6 intercept possessions in victories this year, significantly more than in defeats (10.6 and 58.8 respectively). Furthermore, they haven't lost this season when taking more than 14 intercept marks in a game. The ability of players like Dylan Grimes, Nick Vlastuin, Noah Balta and David Astbury to intercept and begin chains from the backline is the centrepiece of how they play. Keeping them accountable, which largely happens by either marking or bringing the ball to ground to retain possession in the front-half, will therefore be key for the Cats. Balta is likely to take Hawkins, but Dangerfield moving forward could force Grimes into a direct match-up and has been earmarked as a way Geelong could counter Richmond's intercept threat. Grimes (five intercept marks) and Vlastuin (four) dominated the last time they played the Cats (a 26-point victory in round 17), as the Tigers finished with 16 intercept marks for the match. Allowing them to take as many this weekend won't bode well for Chris Scott's side.

THE TIGERS ARE WINNING OUT OF THE MIDDLE

Just when you thought Richmond wasn't already hard to beat, the Tigers have now become an elite centre clearance side as well. Richmond had a centre clearance differential of -1.7 during the home-and-away season, ranked 16th in the League. However, during the finals series, that differential has improved to +8.0. It's the best of any finals side by some distance. The improvement was noticeable during last weekend's preliminary final win. In a round 11 loss to Port Adelaide, Richmond lost the centre clearance battle 5-20. On Friday night, the Tigers won the centre clearance battle 11-4 against the same opposition and subsequently won the match. The turnaround has come at the perfect time, given the location of this year's Grand Final. A series of past Brisbane players and coaches have spoken publicly about the importance of winning centre clearances at a Gabba ground that is second only to the SCG for the shortest in length in Australia. Winning that contest from the centre on Saturday night could therefore be pivotal to winning the territory battle, and maybe even the premiership itself.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/520406/the-five-grand-factors-will-dusty-become-the-greatest-ever-finals-player-

[one-eyed]

Ross Lyon & Matthew Lloyd's Grand Final preview on Footy Classified

13 Tigers are going for their 3rd flag: Vlastuin, Grimes, Prestia, Martin, Riewoldt, Cotchin, Edwards, Astbury, Houli, Rioli, Lambert, Nankervis & Broad.

Selwood going for his 4th at Geelong. Ablett, Hawkins & Taylor going for their 3rd.

Both sides have midfield depth:

"I look at these match ups, and the quality of these players is phenomenal." - @matthewlloyd18
 and Ross Lyon take a look at the Grand Final midfield battle.

Watch here: https://twitter.com/FootyonNine/status/1318874462054469633

Nankervis      Stanley
Martin         Dangerfield
Prestia        Guthrie
Bolton         Duncan
Cotchin        Selwood
Edwards        Parfitt
McIntosh       Menegola .... wing

Richmond's improvement in centrebounce clearances:

                  Differential
Home/Away    -4
Finals            +8   1st in the AFL
Prelim           +7

Stoppage set-up:

Richmond brings up two small forwards (eg: Dusty & Lambert) which drags defenders with them and opens up the Tigers' forward line with a 4-vs-4.

Question for Geelong is do they follow these small forwards to the stoppage or stay back and leave a Dusty all alone.

Defensively at stoppages Richmond protects the corridor. Forces the opposition to kick to the spare in Vlastuin.

Lyon would play a drop off defender against us.

Increase in Geelong's mark & play-on percentage:

In Round 17, Richmond was too good for Geelong.

Once a team that moved the ball slowly, the Cats are now playing with a bit more dare, according to Ross Lyon.

Watch here: https://twitter.com/FootyonNine/status/1318875972121382913

R17 vs Rich   23%   Loss
QF vs Port    22%   Loss
SF vs Coll    29%   Win
PF vs Bris    33%   Win

In Round 17, Geelong were slow and forced sideways until they turned over the footy. Geelong in their past two finals are moving the ball quickly hitting up quickly short targets or via a handball receive.

Geelong forward line:

Tom Hawkins has been unstoppable all season, so how do the Tigers stop him on Saturday night?

Watch here: https://twitter.com/FootyonNine/status/1318876601417871362

In Round 17, Richmond forced Geelong to kick high and long inside F50 to Hawkins which allowed Grimes to spoil and intercept mark. This frustrated Hawkins. You want to mark Hawkins frustrated. Don't allow easy hit-ups which Hawkins has had against Collingwood and Brisbane.

Geelong will play Dangerfield forward as a 2nd marking forward to stretch Vlastuin & Grimes. Ratagolea as a 2nd forward took marks and kicked two goals in the last quarter of the Round 17 game against Richmond. Geelong have learnt from this and now play Dangerfield as the 2nd marking forward.

Martin:

There's a lot of noise and hype around Dustin Martin, but what makes him such a difficult player to match up on?

Ross Lyon and @matthewlloyd18 take a look at why.

Watch here: https://twitter.com/FootyonNine/status/1318876295200149504

Dusty will take you as his opponent out of your comfort zone. He's multi-talented and smart which makes him hard to match up on and for the opposition to get their switch over right as he moves between midfield and the forward line.

Accuracy in front of goal matters:

Since 1998, five sides have lost the premiership due to poor goalkicking.

1998  North 8.22-70 lost to Adelaide 15.15-105
2005  West Coast 7.12-54 lost to Sydney 8.10-58
2008  Geelong 11.23-89 lost to Hawthorn 18.7-115
2009  St Kilda 9.14-68 lost to Geelong 12.8-80
2012  Hawthorn 11.15-81 lost to Sydney 14.7-91 

Odds (PointsBet):

Head to Head:
Richmond  $1.80
Geelong    $2.00

Norm Smith:
                    $
Martin         5.00
Dangerfield  6.50
Houli           13
Prestia         13
Hawkins       13

Tips:

Lyon said his heart says Geelong but Richmond's speed could trouble the Cats. So no confidence but he is tipping Richmond.

Lloyd is tipping Richmond.

Caro - Richmond & Balta as the Norm Smith winner
Eddie - Richmond & Dusty
McClure - Geelong & Dangerfield.

[one-eyed]

If both Dangerfield and Ablett were forward, does grimes go to Dangerfield and broad onto Ablett?

On SEN, Tim Watson said he would play Balta on Dangerfield. Balta has the perfect speed off the mark to match Dangerfield. Garry Lyon would go with Grimes.

[one-eyed]

GRAND FINAL PREVIEW: Tigers v Cats, stats that matter, who wins and why

It all comes down to this. Who will prevail in the 2020 Toyota AFL Grand Final?

By Mitch Cleary
afl.com.au
22 October 2020

SUMMARY

For the first time since 2011, two Victorian teams will meet in a Toyota AFL Grand Final. And it proves to be a corker more than 1600km away from the MCG. Two of their generation's best players Dustin Martin (Richmond) and Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) will go head-to-head, while rival spearheads Tom Lynch and Tom Hawkins will lead their respective attacks. The Tigers are chasing their third premiership in four years in what would rubberstamp one of the most remarkable dynasties in the modern game. At the Cats, champion Gary Ablett is looking to finish his epic 356-game career with a third flag.   

WHERE AND WHEN: Gabba, Saturday October 24, 6.30pm AEST (local), 7.30pm AEDT

WEATHER: Brisbane is expected to reach a maximum of 29c throughout the day with only a 30 per cent chance of rain in the afternoon and evening.

HOW MANY WILL BE THERE? Due to COVID-19 restrictions, the crowd has been capped at 30,000. After corporate tickets and members were allotted seats, tickets went on sale to the general public Tuesday and sold out within 20 minutes.

ENTERTAINMENT (split pre-game and half-time): Rising rock trio DMA'S will headline a contingent of Australian artists that includes Cub Sport, Sheppard, Electric Fields, Wolfmother lead singer Andrew Stockdale and the Queensland Symphony Orchestra.

WHO WILL PRESENT THE CUP AND MEDALS? World No.1 tennis player and Tigers fan Ash Barty will present the cup to Richmond if successful, while Geelong champion Ian Nankervis is in line to take the honours should the Cats salute. 2004 Norm Smith medallist Byron Pickett will present this year's medal, while dual Adelaide premiership coach Malcolm Blight will hand over the Jock McHale Medal to the winning coach.

UMPIRES: Matt Stevic (eighth Grand Final), Simon Meredith (sixth), Craig Fleer (first)

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 17: Richmond 7.15 (57) d Geelong 4.7 (31)
The Tigers' manic pressure kept the Cats to their lowest score of the season. Emerging youngster Shai Bolton collected three Brownlow Medal votes for his 18 disposals on a night Jack Riewolt kicked four majors. The Cats were without Joel Selwood, Rhys Stanley, Gary Rohan and Gary Ablett, while the Tigers were missing Shane Edwards, Dion Prestia and David Astbury.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Richmond
The Tigers' extra emphasis on winning the clearances compared to round 17. Despite winning that night over the Cats, they lost the stoppage count by 16. The Tigers were ranked 17th in the competition for clearance differential (-5.6) during the home and away season but have jumped to become the No.1 team this finals series with an average of +4.7 on their opponents. On the flipside, the Tigers have gone from the best team in scoring from opposition turnovers (45.4 points per game) to the third-worst in finals with 29.7 points per game.

Geelong
Can the Cats avoid being sucked into Richmond's pressure and get the game on their terms? The Cats love to control possession but it's gone to a new level during finals with an average of 76 more disposals per game compared to their opponents. While the Cats recorded 32 more touches than the Tigers in round 17, most were while over-possessing trying to get out of trouble. For example, Mitch Duncan had 83 per cent of his touches in the defensive half compared to his season average of 56. There will also be a strong focus on who takes Dustin Martin. When he's forward expect Jake Kolodjashnij or Tom Stewart to get the job and in the midfield it is likely to be split between Cam Guthrie and Brandan Parfitt.

WHAT THE STATS SAY

- The Tigers defenders have been on song this finals series. Dylan Grimes has won six of 10 on-on-one contests to be the No.1 ranked player the category, while Nathan Broad, Nick Vlastuin and Jayden Short are yet to lose a one-on-one contest.

- The second-best team for turning rebound 50s into forward 50s during the season at 26.4 per cent per exit, the Tigers have been clogged up in the finals, dropping to 13 per cent.

- Between the two sides, Dustin Martin and Joel Selwood have enjoyed the biggest jump between their home and away season and finals for this year. Martin's Champion Data average player rating has ballooned from 12.6 to 20.1 and Selwood's 8.3 to 13.

- Martin is vying to become the first player in history to win the Norm Smith Medal for a third time. The superstar has two medals along with Hawthorn legends Luke Hodge and Gary Ayres, as well as Adelaide champion Andrew McLeod.

- The Cats are unbeaten from five matches at the Gabba this season with an average winning margin of 53 points. The Tigers are 2-1, losing their last game at the venue in the qualifying final to Brisbane.

- The top-five players for retention of kicks inside forward 50 this finals series belong to the Cats. The Cats have retained 77.8 per cent of Sam Menegola's kicks with Gary Rohan (71.4), Luke Dahlhaus (71.4), Mitch Duncan (70) and Gary Ablett (66.7) the next best.

- Selwood is aiming to become the club's first four-time premiership player. Selwood and Ablett are the only remaining members from the 2007 flag.

- Should the Cats win, Ablett (2009-2020) will hold the third longest stint between flags after Drew Banfield (1994-2006) and Doug Wade (1963-1975).

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …

Richmond
After a quiet 2019 season, Jack Riewoldt exploded in last year's decider with five majors. Can he do it again on Saturday night off a similar form line? Riewoldt has kicked three goals and had just 16 disposals from his three finals to date but will again be an important cog alongside Tom Lynch in attack.

Geelong
Cats superstar Patrick Dangerfield has spoken openly in recent times about not being fulfilled as a player until he wins a premiership. Now at age 30, he gets his chance. Dangerfield starred as a forward in the semi-final win over Collingwood but was quiet by his standards in last week's preliminary final. Don't expect it to last on Saturday night.

PREDICTION:

Richmond by five points, only splitting the two teams by the round 17 result.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/520495/grand-final-preview-tigers-v-cats-stats-that-matter-who-wins-and-why

[one-eyed]

Our Grand Final guernsey  .



https://www.richmondfc.com.au/video/829399/2020-grand-final-guernsey?videoId=829399&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1603273763001

[one-eyed]

Tigers as I mentioned this morning on @mmmhotbreakfast staying in Brisbane Friday night. They are treating it as an away game. Conscious of the traffic Saturday and to an extent their gabba form compared to Geelong

https://twitter.com/TomBrowne7

[one-eyed]

Terry Wallace's preview of GF match-ups on SEN tonight:

Richmond's forward line:

Henderson - Riewoldt
Taylor - Lynch
Kolodjashnij - Martin (when playing forward)

Richmond can go small up forward with Rioli, Castagna & Bolton down there which will be interesting especially if the ball is on the ground as Geelong are quite tall down back with the above names plus Stewart and Henry.

Plough expects Dusty to start in the middle.

Geelong's forward line:

Grimes - Dangerfield
Balta - Hawkins
Broad - Rohan
Vlastuin - Ablett

Expects Dangerfield to start forward. Paddy spent 85% of training with the Geelong's forwards group.

Astbury can roll onto Hawkins if need be but Balta has been trusted with the big jobs this year.

Plough believes Balta is a better 2nd ruck option given his athleticism but expects Astbury and Balta to continually swap roles throughout the game at times.

Ablett given too much latitude by Brisbane (Daniel Rich). Need someone who is always on him hence went with Floss.

-------------------

Plough also said Richmond's form this year hasn't been as strong as in past seasons. There would be a believe based on what they've done in past years. They might see it though as there's still plenty of improvement left in them to go to.

On the other hand, Geelong's best has been dominant and that's reflected in having the highest percentage.

The SEN bloke with Plough said Richmond has left the door open in all their finals so far but only Brisbane were good enough to take it. Brisbane on top late in 2nd qtr and 3rd qtr. Argued that in the Semi-Final, the Saints in the 3rd quarter had a number of chances but were coming from a long way back at half-time. Then in the Prelim, Port had more inside 50s.

[Tiger Khosh]

If both Dangerfield and Ablett were forward, does grimes go to Dangerfield and broad onto Ablett?

Hawkins/Balta, Danger/Grimes, Rohan/Broad, Ablett/Vlas, Miers/Baker, Stanley(when forward)/Astbury

[one-eyed]

Best to worst: Every Richmond and Geelong player ranked ahead of the 2020 Grand Final

Jourdan Canil
afl.com.au
23 October 2020

PLAYER RATINGS TOP 44

1. Dustin Martin (Rich) 562.6 (midfielder)
2. Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) 533.8 (midfielder)
3. Shane Edwards (Rich) 501.1 (midfielder)
4. Dion Prestia (Rich) 489.6 (midfielder)
5. Gary Ablett (Geel) 467 (forward)
6. Tom Hawkins (Geel) 422.3 (key forward)
7. Nick Vlastuin (Rich) 403.8 (defender)
8. Kane Lambert (Rich) 397 (midfielder)
9. Sam Menegola (Geel) 387.2 (midfielder)
10. Joel Selwood (Geel) 386.2 (midfielder)
11. Mitch Duncan (Geel) 384.9 (midfielder)
12. Rhys Stanley (Geel) 384.6 (ruck)
13. Mark Blicavs (Geel) 366.6 (key defender)
14. Trent Cotchin (Rich) 354.1 (midfielder)
15. Jack Riewoldt (Rich) 344.8 (key forward)
16. Cameron Guthrie (Geel) 328.9 (midfielder)
17. Brandan Parfitt (Geel) 319.9 (midfielder)
18. Harry Taylor (Geel) 318 (key defender)
19. Dylan Grimes (Rich) 313.3 (key defender)
20. Shai Bolton (Rich) 309.5 (midfielder)
21. Bachar Houli (Rich) 305.7 (defender)
22. Zach Tuohy (Geel) 293.8 (midfielder)
23. Tom Lynch (Rich) 292.6 (key forward)
24. Gryan Miers (Geel) 292.4 (forward)
25. Luke Dahlhaus (Geel) 287.7 (forward)
26. Daniel Rioli (Rich) 278 (forward)
27. Liam Baker (Rich) 277.9 (defender)
28. Toby Nankervis (Rich) 276.2 (ruck)
29. Jayden Short (Rich) 275.5 (defender)
30. Jack Graham (Rich) 266.9 (midfielder)
31. Kamdyn McIntosh (Rich) 264.4 (midfielder)
32. Mark O'Connor (Geel) 252.7 (defender)
33. Gary Rohan (Geel) 249.6 (forward)
34. Jack Henry (Geel) 242.3 (defender)
35. David Astbury (Rich) 237.6 (key defender)
36. Tom Stewart (Geel) 235.7 (defender)
37. Jed Bews (Geel) 223.3 (defender)
38. Jason Castagna (Rich) 219.3 (forward)
39. Nathan Broad (Rich) 197.6 (defender)
40. Jake Kolodjashnij (Geel) 194.1 (defender)
41. Noah Balta (Rich) 164.9 (key defender)
42. Lachie Henderson (Geel) 155.1 (key defender)
43. Marlion Pickett (Rich) 94.6 (midfielder)
44. Sam Simpson (Geel) 41.2 (forward)

https://www.afl.com.au/news/520417/best-to-worst-every-richmond-and-geelong-player-ranked-ahead-of-the-2020-grand-final

[Tigeritis™©®]

Doesn’t say much for Pickett being a wingman

Considering all other wingman on that list
Menegola (9th)
Duncan (11th)
MacIntosh (31st)

Caddy’s player rating is 332.4 points makes him actually 16th on that list ahead of Guthrie.

I really hope Caddy plays instead as a wingman not a forward 

[The Machine]

Caddy would be a massive surprise should he be selected- he just hasn't had the body of work this year. He could not be selected due to the uncertainty surrounding his body. These risks are too large when playing in the big dance. No change... 

[WilliamPowell]

Caddy would be a massive surprise should he be selected- he just hasn't had the body of work this year. He could not be selected due to the uncertainty surrounding his body. These risks are too large when playing in the big dance. No change...

Agree

There will be no change