Richmond vs Geelong @ the 'Gabba --- 2020 Grand Final

[one-eyed]

Saturday 24 October

Summary
Min 22
Max 27

Shower or two. Possible evening storm.

Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Brisbane area
Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers and patchy rain, most likely from the late morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/brisbane.shtml

First bounce: 25 degrees
Half-time:     23 degrees

source: 7news.

[mightytiges]

Brad Johnson just tipped Geelong - home & hosed...

Has he tipped us at all this year?...actually I don't give a stuff!

I want everyone to pick the Cats, it will build even further momentum for a back against the walls victory - not for us but for a media narrative

Andy Maher and Sam McClure have also tipped Geelong.

It's us vs the world Hafey style    .

[one-eyed]

WHO WILL WIN THE GRAND FINAL? THE CASE FOR BOTH RICHMOND AND GEELONG

BY SEN
23 October 2020

It all comes down to Saturday night. Richmond versus Geelong for the 2020 AFL Premiership, arguably the toughest won flag of all-time.

Who will win? Who should you tip?

We’ve made the case for both teams.

The Case For: Richmond

To put it simply, Richmond has the runs on the board to make them tough to tip against this year. They’ve won two of the last three Grand Finals and have a full-strength side available.

The Tigers have won four of their last five against Geelong and comfortably handled them earlier in 2020, with the takeaway from the game being that the Cats’ style did not hold up to Richmond’s pressure and spread.

Geelong only managed four goals in that game (three of which were in junk time), with the 26-point margin flattering given Richmond kicked 7.15 and 4.10 after half-time.

It was as comprehensive a win over a fellow top four team that we have seen in recent times and though coach Chris Scott and the Cats will likely make changes to their plan, it’s hard to see how enough changes to swing the result.

Geelong won more of the ball, took 40 more marks and doubled Richmond in the clearances … and could only kick one goal across three quarters. It seems to suggest that the Tigers are capable of taking the full brunt of their game style and dominate the contest anyway.

This points to a comfortable win for the Tigers on Saturday night, particularly if the rain starts coming down. Richmond might be the best wet weather team we have seen this decade.

- Nic Negrepontis

The Case For: Geelong

It all comes down to this for a Geelong side that has showed a remarkable level of consistency across the most turbulent season in history.

Away from their favoured GMHBA Stadium for most of 2020, Chris Scott has taken his side back to Grand Final for the first time in 2011 and would quite rightly fancy themselves against Richmond.

Chaos versus control has been the central theme leading up to the game – and the Cats will have to control this one from the outset and blunt the Tigers’ hallmark forward handball style, much like Brisbane were able to do against them in the qualifying final.

Why should you tip them? Geelong possesses two of the game’s best players in Patrick Dangerfield and Tom Hawkins and if allowed off the leash, they can take the game away from anyone.

Up against a Richmond side looking to win their third flag in four years, a Cats win would be a fitting farewell for Gary Ablett in his final game of football.

It would also be Dangerfield’s crowning moment, who has never previously played in a Grand Final despite lighting up the competition in previous seasons.

There’s no underestimating the task ahead for Geelong, who will start Saturday night’s Gabba Grand Final as outsiders.

But as this season has shown, not much phases this side and they’re well placed to bounce back from their Round 17 loss to the Tigers and claim footy’s ultimate prize.

- Laurence Rosen

Overall tip: Richmond by 14 points.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/10/23/who-will-win-the-grand-final-the-case-for-both-richmond-and-geelong/

[one-eyed]

AFL Grand Final 2020 preview

Richmond vs Geelong: stats, analysis, who will win, tactics, keys to victory, news

MAX LAUGHTON
FOX SPORTS
24 October 2020

It’s a fitting showdown for Richmond and Geelong, the two best teams of the last two years, and it’s clear the Grand Finalists have been preparing for this very match-up.

We run through the keys to success for both teams and where the flag will be won and lost.

For so long, the Tigers have defined modern footy with their dominant intercept game, allowing them to control territory and score from it.

But after their qualifying final loss to Brisbane, there was a clear personnel shift, and it has flipped their style on its head.

“We’ve seen over the years, you want territory – that’s how you win big finals,” Brisbane great Jonathan Brown said on Fox Footy’s Ultimate Preview.

“Richmond started their run as a territory team, a forward-half turnover team when they won in 2017.

“And just remember last year, they won the Grand Final with absolute dominance around the stoppages against what was last year’s best stoppage team in GWS.”

The Tigers’ centre bounce line-up now typically includes some combination of Dion Prestia, Shane Edwards, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin – a switch for Dusty, who has spent plenty of time in the goalsquare this year.

It’s the centre bounces where the Tigers now dominate, with the 6-6-6 rule forcing even numbers. However around the ground, they’re less impressive.

Perhaps even more stark is the change in how Richmond is generating territory.

Having focused on winning the ball via turnover in the home and away season, the Tigers are now getting it at the source and pushing forward.

“It’s a shift in the investment of your stars. You’re moving your higher-quality players up to the stoppage, so you’re going to win them more often than not,” Brown said.

“That’s a huge shift. That’s taking pressure off your defence, and giving your small crumbing forwards repeat opportunities to score.”

It doesn’t matter where they’re winning the ball – Richmond just wants to get it forwards. Fast.

The key to this success in the finals series has been through what David King coined the ‘Tiger line’, which is the area of the ground just inside the centre square where they can do the most damage.

“Any time you see a handball go from the logos into the corridor, to the wing line, they’re queuing up,” King explained on Fox Footy.

“And then the game goes from first gear to overdrive straight away. The forwards light up. Opposition plus-ones or loose men are rendered useless, and they get good quality one-on-ones when they go in.

“With the ball in contest, they’re getting themselves ready, and this is where the speed comes in. It’s super aggressive.”

But it’s not unstoppable. Brisbane found success in the qualifying final by focusing on halting this sort of ball movement.

It’s not clear whether the Cats have the right personnel to do the same thing though. As detailed below, Chris Scott’s side has sped up its own ball movement this finals series, but they can’t reach Richmond’s heights.

“If Geelong want to go fast, they’ll (Richmond) keep going faster, because they’ve got a higher speed limit than any other team,” Brown said.

All year the Cats had great success running out games, with their older bodies clearly enjoying the shortened quarters.

They were dominant after halftime, turning slender leads into thumping wins.

However something has changed in their two finals victories – they’re starting well, instead.

It’s an impressive and important shift, as seven of the last 10 Grand Finals have been won by the team that led at quarter-time.

It also means the Cats can play their preferred game style and dominate possession, going slow if they need to, rather than being forced to play fast and loose to get back into the game.

Richmond might’ve improved in the midfield this finals series, but they’ve got a ways to go to catch the Cats.

Chris Scott’s side ranks second in the AFL for clearances and first for scores from clearances – it’s their bread and butter.

The problem for the Tigers is they rank 12th for pre-clearance pressure applied, meaning they haven’t shown an ability to stop opposing midfielders at the coalface.

“Around the ball, the size of the Cats is going to be an issue. It’s their greatest strength,” St Kilda champion Leigh Montagna said on Fox Footy’s Ultimate Preview.

“They’re not a team that tends to just throw it on the boot and get territory, a bit like Port Adelaide or Richmond. They love to come out the front, take on the tackle and use the ball.”

The notable exception is Patrick Dangerfield, who is one of the best players in the AFL at extracting the ball from stoppages and driving it forward – but not with the best accuracy.

In one example shown on The Ultimate Preview against Richmond during the home and away season, Dangerfield thumped the ball forward, but the Tigers vacuumed it up and quickly rebounded for a score.

“There’s a better balance now with him in the forward line as opposed to in the midfield. He’s a high metres gained player, we know he can burst through stoppages, but he can tend to blast it at times and make it difficult for the forwards,” Montagna said.

“With the other guys in there, (Mitch) Duncan particularly, (Cam) Guthrie, (Brandan) Parfitt, (Sam) Menegola and (Joel) Selwood, they’re very good at using their hands and taking better looks.”

Duncan has had a tremendous finals series, with half of his inside 50s finding a teammate’s hands, while defender Tom Stewart has also become a sneaky threat up forward.

But a lot of this success is because suddenly the Cats aren’t taking forever to get the ball forward.

Their worst game of the year – against Richmond – saw them constantly kicking into a well set-up Tigers defence, because they gave Damien Hardwick’s side the time to prepare.

But there has been a dramatic shift since the qualifying final loss to Port Adelaide, with an almost 50 per cent increase in the number of times the Cats play on from marks in defence.

“It’s an adjustment made with Richmond in mind,” Saints great Nick Riewoldt said on Fox Footy.

“We know how organised Richmond are behind the footy, that’s their great strength … the quicker you move it, the less time they have to get all set up.”

It means the Cats aren’t controlling the footy quite as much – they averaged 85 uncontested marks across the home and away season, but 75 in their finals wins – but it’s clearly working.

If the Tigers get the game on their terms, and can move the ball downfield at speed, they’re going to be hard to stop.

The premiers love a chaotic contest on a wing, with their talls knocking the ball forwards or finding a running teammate who can quickly get it to Tom Lynch or Jack Riewoldt.

They’ve had great success against Geelong in recent years doing exactly this.

However the Cats have been even more stifling than usual from this source in this finals series.

Of the 107 times an opposing team has rebounded the ball from their defensive 50 this October, just once have they scored.

That’s an unsustainably low rate, but if the Cats can get anywhere close to that on Saturday night, they’re a real chance of winning the whole shebang.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-grand-final-2020-preview-richmond-tigers-vs-geelong-cats-stats-analysis-who-will-win-tactics-keys-to-victory-news/news-story/3d86adc202d46f17408193d6ed26e33e

[one-eyed]

Brad Johnson just tipped Geelong - home & hosed...

Has he tipped us at all this year?...actually I don't give a stuff!

I want everyone to pick the Cats, it will build even further momentum for a back against the walls victory - not for us but for a media narrative

Andy Maher and Sam McClure have also tipped Geelong.

It's us vs the world Hafey style    .

'Experts' tips ...

The Age

Richmond (7):
Emma Kearney, Matthew Lloyd, Bec Goddard, Michael Gleeson, Daniel Cherny, Jake Niall, Caroline Wilson.

Geelong (7):
Jon Pierik, Sam McClure, Peter Ryan, Scott Spits, Wayne Carey, Bob Murphy, Greg Baum.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/afl-grand-final-2020-expert-tips-winning-margins-and-norm-smith-medal-predictions-20201023-p5684h.html

Foxsports

Richmond (10):
Matt Balmer, Dermott Brereton, Nick Dal Santo, Ben Dixon, Jason Dunstall, Nick Riewoldt, Kath Loughnan, Max Laughton, Tom Morris, Kelli Underwood,

Geelong (14):
Jonathan Brown, Gerard Healy, Brad Johnson, David King, Alastair Lynch, Garry Lyon, Cameron Mooney, Leigh Montagna, Drew Jones, Sarah Jones, Bob Murphy, Sarah Olle, Ben Waterworth, David Zita.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-grand-final-winners-2020-tips-predictions-richmond-vs-geelong-grand-final-preview-norm-smith-medal-first-goal/news-story/3e5e171d189205f0d22c54cbd4df0de1

Nine's Footy Show

Richmond: Kane Cornes

Geelong: Damian Barrett

[georgies31]

Pressure Pressure and tackling that's the key really high intensity for 4 qtrs.Get a good start and kick straight important.Win the centre clearances and contested ball or breake even.Delivery in 50 has to be accurate not bombing it in smalls need to do there job and terrorise cats back 6.Use our speed and run and carry to expose them also. No missed tackles,fumbles and stray hand balls skills need to be spot on and finely a even 22 contribution.

[Diocletian]

Have an uneasy feeling that soft spud Rohan will bob up on the end of a few...

[WilliamPowell]

Have decided night Grand Finals are a joke

This waiting around all day crap is well crap

 

[harry bosch]

Especially when you have been awake since 0430

[georgies31]

Have an uneasy feeling that soft spud Rohan will bob up on the end of a few...

I will back our back 6 there a strong unit George to kick a few today 

[WilliamPowell]

BTW

Just wanted to confirm the AFL haven't made a rule change during this week and reduced the number of players taking part in the game?

Going by the media there are only 3 players, playing tonight

Danger, Ablett One and Dusty 

[one-eyed]

AFL Grand Final 2020, Richmond v Geelong: How the game will be won and lost

Al Paton and Liam Twomey
Herald Sun
October 24, 2020

Richmond take on Geelong as they go in search of back-to-back flags and a third in four years. Geelong is looking to give superstar Gary Ablett the fairytale send off to retirement.

So where will the game be won and lost? Jon Ralph takes a look.

Dustin Martin versus Jake Kolodjashnij

Footy’s larrikin-turned-choir boy is as close to perfect in the cauldron of finals football as a player can be. He will not only tackle the best the Cats can throw at him, he is fighting against history as well.

No player has won three Norm Smith Medals before, with a trio of these feted awards putting him on the fast-track to Hall of Fame legend status as soon as he becomes eligible.

Geelong need to tag him with Cam Guthrie but probably won’t, so his regular Cats forward match-up Kolodjashnij needs to control him as he wanders up the ground into stoppages, which is where he creates so much havoc.

Bachar Houli versus Luke Dahlhaus

They don’t write songs about dual Norm Smith Medal runners-up, but Houli’s brilliance after finishing behind only Dustin Martin in two Grand Finals is unquestioned.

Houli and Richmond will try to orchestrate a match-up on the least lethal Cats forward so he can surge into space at every opportunity and turn counter-attack into offence.

Dahlhaus was his opponent in last year’s preliminary final, and must get dangerous from the opening bounce to plant the seed of doubt into Houli.

If he can’t stop his rebound he needs to kick multiple goals the other way.

Jack Riewoldt versus Lachie Henderson

As triple Coleman Medallist Riewoldt was kicking his fifth goal in last year’s Grand Final Henderson was on footy’s scrapheap, eventually delisted by the Cats.

He fought his way back onto the rookie list and has arguably been Geelong’s most consistent player across three finals.

After 13 seasons and at his third club, this former top 10 pick gets his date with destiny.

Riewoldt has only a single goal in his past two finals, so is he ready to erupt or can Henderson stifle one of footy’s most dynamic weapons on his way to holding up the cup?

Tom Hawkins versus Noah Balta

Hawkins emerged onto the scene described by premiership coach Denis Pagan as an “18-year-old Tony Lockett” while Balta was immediately compared to five-time All Australian Alex Rance.

Both are living up to the lofty expectations but at opposite ends of their career.

The Tigers defender mixes freakish athletic powers with a canny sense of when to spoil and when to throw himself skyward to intercept mark, but knows there is no more dangerous opponent than Hawkins.

He will get plenty of help from his teammates but in a handful of contests this will be a pure a show of strength between the 30-game kid and a veteran who knows every trick in the book.

https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/afl-grand-final-2020-richmond-v-geelong-how-the-game-will-be-won-and-lost-ng-b881702537z

[one-eyed]

Today Richmond are the AFL's bad guys - but the bad guys are going to win

Josh Elliott
theRoar.com.au
24 October 2020

Here’s something that I, as a post-’90s North Melbourne fan, have never had the opportunity to actually know: when a football team has gone through a rich period of success, does winning really still mean as much?

I was alive to see North Melbourne win premierships on TV, but I don’t have a moment’s memory of it. And the one defining football experience I crave is to be in the stands watching as my team wins the premiership. Give me that, and I’ll die happy – at least as far as football fandom ambitions go.

At that point I imagine I would become a footballing Buddha – completely at peace with the sport and willing to watch any team win with grace, for I have seen all the success that I need to. It’s a nice idea.

But is that actually what happens to football fans when they get a taste of success? Is it what would happen to me? Well, we might never find out with regards to the latter – but it’s clear in the lead-up to this week’s grand final that supporters of both Richmond and Geelong remain as hungry as ever.

And there’s good reason for that. While both fan-bases have lifted the premiership cup in recent memory, both still have plenty to gain from winning the 2020 premiership tonight.

For Geelong, 17 of the 22 members of their squad would be premiership players for the first time. That in itself is more than enough motivation for any team, and to see great stories like Tom Stewart, Mark Blicavs or Sam Menegola collect a medal would warm the hearts of every Cats fan.

Of course, more promiment than any of those names is Patrick Dangerfield, one of the great players of the modern era, who at the age of 30 and after playing in five preliminary finals at two different clubs is finally getting his first chance at a grand final.

A premiership is the most lusted-after thing on any all-time great’s resume and it’s the only thing left missing from his.

Should the Cats fall short, Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett won’t exactly finish their careers feeling like they failed – both have had more success than any footballer coming into the system could dream of achieving.

But for Selwood there is an opportunity to become the only four-time premiership player in the history of the Geelong Football Club, and to win a premiership as captain for the first time. For Ablett there’s the opportunity to end his career on the ultimate high note, to be the prodigal Son of God who returned to deliver premiership glory.

Richmond’s narratives don’t have quite the same drama. They’ve won two of the last three already, and have only a single player in their squad – Noah Balta – who would have to continue life without a premiership medal should they lose tonight.

And should that happen, no Richmond fan will find themselves feeling that this side’s success in recent years does not satisfy. These Tigers have already written themselves into history as the team that broke the club’s longest premiership drought, and went on to dominate the competition.

Still, many of you would’ve seen Brendon Gale’s bold three-flags-by-2020 prediction doing the rounds on social media this week, and while two out of three ain’t bad – as the AFL’s most infamous grand final entertainer would say – it would be beautifully symbolic of the Richmond renaissance for them to achieve exactly that.

It’s fair to say, too, that there’s no love left to lose between these two fan-bases. Perhaps neither is the other’s most famous rival, but they might well be their most bitter.

Both of Richmond’s recent premierships have involved knocking off the Cats in September. In 2017 it was their breakthrough qualifying final win, which drew inevitable controversy as a ‘home’ final for the Cats, fixtured at Richmond’s preferred venue of the MCG.

Then there was last year’s preliminary final, when Geelong so very nearly pulled off one of the great upsets, only to be sunk by five goals from Tom Lynch. Mark Blicavs on the wing, anyone?

Geelong coach Chris Scott has clearly never felt a need not to add fuel to the fire. In 2019 he said the Tigers weren’t as good as in their minor premiership-winning previous season. Earlier this year he claimed Richmond don’t compare to the great Hawthorn, Geelong, St Kilda or Collingwood sides of the past decade.

You might well agree with him, but it’s rare that a coach would be so straightforwardly honest in his assessment of a rival team – particularly one that, by any measure, has stood head and shoulders above the rest of the competition these past three years.

Winning tonight may well vindicate Scott’s comments, losing will open up yet another barrage of critcism. The margin between those outcomes is razor-thin and Scott’s reputation has as much if not more to gain – or lose – tonight as anyone else’s.

He is already a premiership coach, but on that many would say was lucky to inherit a premiership-ready team. I don’t necessarily agree with that, but it’s a refrain that will keep being echoed in his direction until he proves himself again.

Tonight will be Scott’s 211th game coaching the Cats since that 2011 flag win. No one in history has coached so many games at the same club between consecutive premierships – after ten years at the helm, no one could say this isn’t every bit a Chris Scott team.

We neutral fans are often drawn to the narrative, and I’ll admit that, like most others I suspect, I’ve been won over by Geelong’s. The many reasons why have all been listed above, the one that stands out the most is the desire to see Gary Ablett Junior go out on a high.

And there’s good reason to believe exactly that will happen. My statistical tipping model says the Cats by three points, 12 of the 13 tracked on Squiggle are also backing the white and navy blue.

But my gut? My gut says there’s no other way this ends than with Richmond lifting the cup again. In the eyes of many the Tigers may be the villains of the piece, but that’s the great thing about footy – sometimes the villains win.

That in itself can be a motivation – that siege-mentality, backs-against-the-wall opportunity to win a ‘screw you’ premiership even after every neutral fan has grown sick of seeing you succeed (or at least, that’s what they’ll tell themselves). See Hawthorn in 2015 for the best example.

The Tigers like to play intense, fast-paced football, a brand that’s well suited to what we’re expecting will be wet, possibly even stormy Queensland conditions. Geelong on the other hand are known for slower ball movement, set shots and uncontested possession – a style that may prove difficult to practice. I’m expecting that to be the difference.

I’ve tipped some grand finals in the past on who I wanted to win, a narrative I bought into because I wanted to see it happen. It worked okay for the Bulldogs in 2016, not so much Fremantle in 2013, or the Giants last year.

Not this time: I’m tipping 2020’s bad guys. Richmond by 18, Dustin Martin to make yet more history with a third Norm Smith medal. Come on Geelong – prove me wrong.

https://www.theroar.com.au/2020/10/24/today-richmond-are-the-afls-bad-guys-but-the-bad-guys-are-going-to-win/

[one-eyed]

ROB HARDING'S ULTIMATE GRAND FINAL PREVIEW

BY ROB HARDING
SEN
24 October 2020

Well, we finally made it!

The 162nd and final game of the longest AFL season is here, and it’s the dynasty against the fairytale.

Richmond is shooting for their third premiership in four years. Three flags put them in the Hawthorn, Geelong and Brisbane Lions territory for team of the 21st century.

For Geelong, a fourth flag in this era would be a remarkable achievement, and cap off the retiring Gary Ablett’s return to the club, as well as see one of the best players of the era, Patrick Dangerfield, finally achieve premiership success.

Last three meetings

2020 Round 17: Richmond 7.15.57 d. Geelong 4.7.31 (26 points). Metricon Stadium (N)

2019 Preliminary Final: Richmond 12.13.85 d. Geelong 9.12.66 (19 points). MCG (N)

2019 Round 12: Geelong 16.8.104 d. Richmond 5.7.37 (67 points). MCG (N)

Something of note: Richmond has won four of the last five meetings between the two clubs since the start of 2018, yet in all five games, Geelong has won clearances and contested possession.

While this has given the Cats initial field position, the Tigers have been able to counter-punch effectively from their back half. In their last two meetings, Richmond scored 5.7 (out of 7.15) and 6.7 (out of 12.13) from their back half.

By way of comparison, Geelong has kicked only two goals from the back half in their last three games against Richmond.

Last time they met

On a Friday night in Round 17 at Metricon Stadium, the Tigers recorded a comfortable 26-point victory over the Cats.

The margin didn’t reflect the Richmond dominance, as Geelong kicked just 1.5 up until the five-minute mark of the fourth quarter.

Richmond’s defenders were able to drop off and prevent Tom Hawkins generating any one on ones against Noah Balta, with Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlastuin leaving their young Cats opponents to provide support. The pair recorded 19 intercept possessions between them on the night.

Geelong were able to control possession with their kick and mark game, but Richmond successfully prevented them gaining any field position, teasing short kicks to the boundary line and keeping Geelong in their back half.

Richmond’s ability to counter attack from their defensive half was outstanding, kicking five of their seven goals from the back half, unsettling the Geelong defence. Had they kicked accurately in front of goal in the third quarter (2., the margin would have been significantly greater.

The Tigers win came at a cost, with Tom Lynch suffering a hamstring injury and Ivan Soldo a season ending knee injury.

There will be significant changes from the last time the two sides met.

Stanley, Selwood, Rohan, Simpson and Ablett all return for the Cats, while Richmond bring in Premiership players Prestia, Edwards, Astbury and Broad.

What Richmond learnt during the finals

Despite subtle variations over the years, Richmond’s system has remained relatively consistent since their first premiership in 2017.

This finals series, two key areas have stood out – their stoppage work, and the impact of their half forwards.

Stoppages have long been a vulnerability of this Richmond side. In the last four home and away seasons, they have ranked 17th, 16th, 18th and 11th for Clearance differential.

The impact of their clearance losses has been negated by the strength of their back six and their great ability to counter-punch, using their speed and spread in transition to outnumber from contest to contest after the stoppage.

This year Richmond ranked 17th for clearance differential, at -5.6 a game. In finals they’ve averaged +4.7 a game, which would rank #3 during the home and away season.

The turnaround has entirely been due to centre bounce, where the Tigers have been +7, +10 and +7 over the last three weeks.

The fourth quarter of their epic preliminary final victory was outstanding in this area, winning Centre Bounce 5-0, as part of a 16-4 Clearance domination in the quarter.

The Tigers half forward running power has been central to their sustained success.

Richmond will bring one or two forwards up to midfield stoppages then reset with speed, giving the opposition the difficult decision on whether to follow the forwards into the stoppage (and leave the rest of their defenders 4v4), or drop off one forward and give Richmond the outnumber at the contest.

Tigers half forwards also have the important role of pushing back to releasing their hard working wings back into defensive 50.

In their qualifying final loss to Brisbane, Richmond were outworked in both their defensive 50 and forward 50. The Lions were able to generate shots at goal from ground level in their attack, and mop up ground balls in Richmond’s forward line to prevent the Tigers hitting the scoreboard.

The Tigers have been much better in the last two weeks, and their connection between Half Forwards, Wings and Half Backs has been back to its very best.

What Geelong learnt during the finals

Geelong’s big structural change began in the final home and away round, as Patrick Dangerfield spent more time forward to provide another focal point to Tom Hawkins.

Dangerfield kicked 3.2 in a quarter and a half against the Swans in Round 18, followed up by 22 disposals, 7 inside 50s and a long running goal against Port, and 19 disposals and four goals in a dominant display against Collingwood.

Dangerfield’s time forward is only possible if the Geelong midfield is able to break even or better around the contest.

In their three finals games, Geelong have won Contested Possession on all three occasions (+4, +22 and +16) and Clearances in their last two games (+13 and +4). The return of Joel Selwood from injury and Sam Simpson as a high Half Forward pushing into stoppage has allowed Dangerfield the time forward.

One of the biggest sources of confidence for the Cats going into the Grand Final is that they have won their last two games in different ways.

While they have been strong in the contest in both games, the Cats were able to control the ball for long periods against a tired Collingwood team in their Semi Final.

The Cats took 134 marks for the night, more than 50 more than their home and away average, which ranked #1 in the AFL.

Against Brisbane they were more direct with the football, playing a forward-half game from stoppage and contest, and not having to rely on building the ball up slowly from their defensive half.

Given the way their Round 17 loss to Richmond played out, the Cats will take a lot of belief from their preliminary final win, and the different mix of players in their forward six.

Two things to watch for

Richmond has been the best team in the last four years, and deservingly go in favourites to win their third premiership in four years.

For the Cats to win, there are two key areas they must address.

1. Geelong’s half forwards

In Round 17 the Richmond defenders were able to easily drop off Geelong’s half forwards to impact against Hawkins.

The Cats have addressed this by bringing the experience of Rohan and Ablett back into the side, and by deploying Dangerfield as a forward.

When the Cats half forwards are no longer in dangerous positions, they must reset and keep the Richmond backs engaged.

The more one-on-ones Hawkins and Dangerfield get, the better for Geelong.

2. Geelong’s defensive shape

The Cats are renowned for their strong defensive formation, preventing teams moving the ball forward with speed.

However, this has been an achilles heel against the Tigers, whose high half forwards and speed of ball have troubled the Cats out of their back half.

The key message for Geelong’s midfielders and forwards is “delay delay delay”.

Any time the Cats can buy to maintain their defensive formation and prevent Tigers fast breaks is worth its weight in gold.

Geelong can do this by coming forward to meet the Richmond surge and put pressure on the ball carrier, as Brisbane did in the qualifying final, and ensuring the have roll around support behind the ball.

Prediction

Both clubs are great role models to the competition for employing the right leaders, embedding a strong culture, and having trust and faith in the building process. As a result, the sustained success of both clubs comes as no surprise.

I was fortunate enough to be opposition analyst at Geelong for their last premiership in 2011, and would be thrilled to see a Cats flag and the fairytale complete for Ablett and Dangerfield.

It would be fitting for Chris Scott to coach his second Premiership, as the team has nearly entirely been rebuilt in his time at the club, all while retaining high positions on the ladder.

The Tigers have withstood all the distractions this year, and a third Premiership would be an appropriate reflection of their performance since 2017.

Based on their recent history, and the probability of a slippery night at the Gabba, I predict Richmond will get the job done.

Richmond by 16 points.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/10/23/rob-hardings-ultimate-grand-final-preview/

[one-eyed]

Showers expected for AFL grand final but storms may hold off for final siren

Meteorologist Rosa Hoff said thunderstorms were possible over Brisbane on Saturday afternoon, but the chance of a storm during the grand final, which kicks off at 6.30pm, was still only about 20-30 per cent.

While a storm may hold off until after the game, showers are still likely during the match, Ms Hoff said.

"Showers are something we won't avoid, there's about a 60 per cent chance of a shower during the match itself," she said. "Some fairly light showers and a bit of humidity around the city [are expected]."

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/showers-expected-for-afl-grand-final-but-storms-may-hold-off-for-final-siren-20201024-p56873.html